OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

that they are basically property development companies . for history look at 1987 crash and how property development companies faired

[Beagle]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

Fear and momentum and the market totally saturated with unsold units before this GFC MK2 as well as the market per se being serviced with many competitors which wasn't the case with GFC MK1 for RYM. Checked out how far SUM, ARV and RYM has fallen in the last month ? The whole sector is in the toilet apart from shareholders hoping their MET will still get taken over. (Good luck with that).

[James108]

The risk of the virus getting in retirement villages is an existential threat in my view, which could weigh on the image of retirement villages for years (decades if it is bad) to come. As well as the impact of a recession on property development. Having said that you would think the 'almost' closing of the border would alleviate some of the above risk and the OCR cut would also provide a boost.

Interesting times.

[bull....]

china just released stats saying chinese property market has been impacted by the virus

[Food4Thought]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

Hi TJ

OCA went IPO in July 2017.
Very little history. Listed at 80c. I would still be in the green if I kept my SUM, bought 8-10 years ago.

I learn the hard way trying to spot the bottom during GFC and also, this is unprecedented as it will seriously influence Australia and New Zealand economy.

A reccession is one thing, a depression is another.

I believe OCA is a solid company, yet many variables at the moment with a great deal of uncertainty.

The stimulus will in my will cause a temporary increase in values and then the really bad news will come out, bit by bit.

The trend is your friend

[peat]

it will seriously influence Australia and New Zealand economy.

but they may be the first to kick off again given their trade with China which is likely to recover sooner than freer nations.

[whatsup]

Always wondered who and why the S P was pushed up from early Dec when it was in the low $1.05's ( IMHO where it still belongs) and from the old BIL share play book now can be bought @ $1.20ish, now is that a wise bet in this market ?

Well well well , back below the listing price !

[winner69]

The risk of the virus getting in retirement villages is an existential threat in my view, which could weigh on the image of retirement villages for years (decades if it is bad) to come. As well as the impact of a recession on property development. Having said that you would think the 'almost' closing of the border would alleviate some of the above risk and the OCR cut would also provide a boost.

Interesting times.

Hope what happens in the US somewhere doesn’t happen here ...20 plus residents in a home left to die because they couldn’t find anybody to look after and care for them

[Beagle]

Hope what happens in the US somewhere doesn’t happen here ...20 plus residents in a home left to die because they couldn’t find anybody to look after and care for them

I think that's the greatest fear.

[trader_jackson]

OCA exactly 4 weeks ago was $1.23, OCA's NAV is $1.14, OCA's NTA is $1.01, OCA's IPO was 79 cents (nearly exactly 3 years ago), the lowest prior to today was 78 cents... OCA's share price is now 68 cents

I agree with the above around the fear and subsequent stigma around an outbreak at one of their facilities/locations, but OCA is trading at a discount of 33% - this is the largest discount of all the retirement operators (basically as large as MET's was - prior to the takeover), and probably any and all property related stocks on the NZX

I believe their NTA is largely supported by residential property (not commercial or retail office space, which I do believe could be in for a rougher time than residential property)... could it be that Mr Market pricing a fall in residential property of 33%? [if that is the case, the banks have ALOT to worry about! far more than they did during the GFC or 1987 or any other time in NZ history basically!] Or is OCA not telling us something?

I'm topping up