OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[macduffy]

It's just general fear and (mild) panic in the market, t j. Hold tight!

[bull....]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest

[trader_jackson]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest

Please break it down how OCA will be toast exactly? I may agree with such an explanation and so I'd be interesting to hear how and why this would impact their nearly 30 villages instantaneously.

[bull....]

Please break it down how OCA will be toast exactly? I may agree with such an explanation and so I'd be interesting to hear how and why this would impact their nearly 30 villages instantaneously.

i have already explained on tthe thread

[King1212]

Wow..never thought will go this low. Macca would laughing at the other side....

How much lower this puppies can go?

[Beagle]

In 2019 MET were at one point trading at $4.20, a deeper discount of exactly 40% to NTA. I know, I bought some very close to that figure.
This was without the virus risk. I will leave others to make an assessment of where their share price might go if the takeover offer fails for any reason but I would have thought its a given it would test the previous low of $4.20.

A 40% discount to NTA for OCA suggests $1.01 x 0.6 = 60.6 cents. Food for thought. Is it possible that we could see a 50% discount to NTA if this virus goes rampant at a few facilities or potentially even a deeper discount ? Who is to say how this might play itself out ?

[Bjauck]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest

Do we not need to make a distinction between the independent ORA village units and the rest home/hospital facilities?

If the infection rate amongst the villagers is different compared to the same age group in the community then that could either have a positive or negative impact. Why should we not see people in villages actually have a better outcome? After all, it may be that villages can be better cocooned during the peak of the epidemic, resulting in a smaller infection rate than for those in the same age group in the outside community.

For the rest home/hospital facilities, what is the alternative for the care of those who need that level of care? How rest homes cope with this epidemic may lead to improvement in infection control, level of health board funding during epidemics, and other processes.

[mp52]

Do we not need to make a distinction between the independent ORA village units and the rest home/hospital facilities?

Just riffing, upside of either type is:

• Ease of oversight and management of H&S in regard to service providers contact with residents (i.e. most are staff)
• Proximity of residents and established billing systems makes it easier to launch new services and strategies for residents to mitigate risk (e.g. shopping and delivery services).
• No safer alternatives appear to exist! Cohabiting with family increases risk of transfer. Move to an independent dwelling would in most cases increase risk of community exposure (through increased reliance on family or independent service providers - neither likely to have the same level of coordinated health management provided by a retirement village/home.
• Not a nice one think about, but thinning numbers increases churn of new customers and purchase contracts.

Downside

• If infection did take hold, the close proximity of residents in serviced apartment or rest home level care, relative health of these residents and use of shared facilities could hit this cohort hard.
• Public perception of increased risk within this environment - possibly supported by sloppy mortality statistics from journalists (e.g. incorrectly correlating cohorts of elderly within and outside retirement villages with different health profiles).
• Future customers holding-off until the crisis has passed and perhaps hoping for a surplus of units/rooms offering discounted entry.

[Bjauck]

...

• Public perception of increased risk within this environment - possibly supported by sloppy mortality statistics from journalists (e.g. incorrectly correlating cohorts of elderly within and outside retirement villages with different health profiles).
• Future customers holding-off until the crisis has passed and perhaps hoping for a surplus of units/rooms offering discounted entry.

Thanks for the summary of issues. There is a sloppy journalism about...These two points I see as a real risk. If there are a batch of infections in (for example) an Oceania facility or village, this would make a good headline and would be a talking point.

That could happen even despite the infection rate among all (for example) Oceania facilities remaining below the infection rate in the same age group in the community at large. It could also happen even if the infection rate were below the neighbourhood surrounding the particular Oceania facility.

In relation to serviced apartments and rest homes, this is an unfortunate but necessary risk. Some people with needs will always need close quarters one-on-one or high needs two-on-one care. Roll on increased robotic care?

[Bjauck]

I sometimes visit someone in an ORA villa at my local oceania village. It already has protection measures in place for the the independent villa residents. Every visitor needs to report to reception, and fill out a detailed questionnaire prior to driving to the villa.

How many older folk in their own homes have that level of security?

*Some residents have the questionnaires at their villas. The procedure is obviously evolving.