OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[couta1]

I had a birdie tell me that Oceania might be in lock down so double increase

Nope, but only essential visits allowed.

[Ggcc]

Nope, but only essential visits allowed.

And contractors have been turned away

[couta1]

And contractors have been turned away

If the washing machines or dishwashers break down, the contractors are allowed because its essential.

[Ggcc]

If the washing machines or dishwashers break down, the contractors are allowed because its essential.

Well that’s good news they are taking it al serious. You are on the front line so you would know more than me

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

Might be worth having another look through the half year results presentation, wherein I note a NAV of $1.15.
Current share price of 55 cents represents less than half the NAV. Hmm, Armageddon already fully priced in ?...is it possible we might not get Armageddon ?

[youngatheart]

Wow, it looks like 60c on opening meaning that that 55c x 500k sell at 4.59pm last night may have provided an instant 10% boost to those fortunate enough to have got them.

That last 5 minutes at the end of the day is insane...

[blackcap]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

Might be worth having another look through the half year results presentation, wherein I note a NAV of $1.15.
Current share price of 55 cents represents less than half the NAV. Hmm, Armageddon already fully priced in ?...is it possible we might not get Armageddon ?

Hi Beagle,

Is the NAV realisable though? I had a look at the balance sheet and am not as confident as you are. I did have a nibble at this stock the other day but it could still fall a bit further.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

Is the NAV realisable though? I had a look at the balance sheet and am not as confident as you are. I did have a nibble at this stock the other day but it could still fall a bit further.

As long as its a going concern, (which it will be with most of their business model paid with Govt funding) I feel NAV is a fairer assessment of the intrinsic value of the company.
Half NAV is very close to Armageddon pricing in my opinion. Maybe there's some chance of an outcome that's not Armageddon ?
Then again if we do get widespread community spread and its gets into OCA's villages, I grant you the share price could get really ugly...but that would be the time I would put a decent position on so that doesn't worry me, (not that I am wishing this on any of our old folks). My 1% portfolio allocation at present is not what I would call confident. Plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet is how I see this one.

[Food4Thought]

As long as its a going concern, (which it will be with most of their business model paid with Govt funding) I feel NAV is a fairer assessment of the intrinsic value of the company.
Half NAV is very close to Armageddon pricing in my opinion. Maybe there's some chance of an outcome that's not Armageddon ?
Then again if we do get widespread community spread and its gets into OCA's villages, I grant you the share price could get really ugly...but that would be the time I would put a decent position on so that doesn't worry me, (not that I am wishing this on any of our old folks). My 1% portfolio allocation at present is not what I would call confident. Plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet is how I see this one.

I see it coming down further in the near future. These small up trends are easily chewed up when the community spread kicks in. I don't believe it's at all near the bottom.

SUM was $3ish end 2013 (edited, had quoted 2011) Took many years to double in shareprice. Now it's also heading that way again. Doesn't have a huge return.

All the best. I hope it's less of a drop than what I believe will happen. My gauge is around the 35-40c mark.

What a show. Goodluck out there people, beings and of course, animals 👌

[Beagle]

Okay so its it's that bad and say OCA is only worth 50 cents, less than half NTA and well under half NAV and most of their operation is underwritten by Govt funding then in relative terms my assessment of fair value would be
SUM - half NTA - they have stopped growing fast other than for their debt, unsold units and bare land = $2.50
MET - As above - half NTA $3.50
RYM - Cannot be worth more than NTA in an Armageddon scenario so lets say 10% discount to book as they are the gold standard = $4
ARV - 40% discount to book as unlike SUM and MET they are actually growing = 75 cents

All these stocks have ostensibly the same risks but only one has the security of Govt funding for the vast majority of its business model. 35-40 cents would make no sense and would be "quite the opportunity" so bring it on !! Disc: Just 1% portfolio allocation at this stage.