OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[allfromacell]

Okay so its it's that bad and say OCA is only worth 50 cents, less than half NTA and well under half NAV and most of their operation is underwritten by Govt funding then in relative terms my assessment of fair value would be
SUM - half NTA - they have stopped growing fast other than for their debt, unsold units and bare land = $2.50
MET - As above - half NTA $3.50
RYM - Cannot be worth more than NTA in an Armageddon scenario so lets say 10% discount to book as they are the gold standard = $4
ARV - 40% discount to book as unlike SUM and MET they are actually growing = 75 cents

All these stocks have ostensibly the same risks but only one has the security of Govt funding for the vast majority of its business model. 35-40 cents would make no sense and would be "quite the opportunity" so bring it on !! Disc: Just 1% portfolio allocation at this stage.

Go on beagle, make it 2%

[Beagle]

Go on beagle, make it 2%

LOL 1% is hardly a high conviction position is it ! Lets see where the dust settles frist.

[King1212]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

[bull....]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

your joking right?

[Grimy]

I was happy to take a few more today at .53. Ready to buy more if it continues down.

[Meister]

your joking right?

Yeah, turns out they are not ACTUALLY getting flies to sign in

[skid]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

I dunno.....flies can be tricky.......................but on a more serious note.... signing in doesnt stop a virus if you unknowingly have it....God forbid

[Beagle]

Hard one to figure why the market thinks its only worth 51 cents ? Any thoughts anyone ?, good bad and ugly will all be considered.

[Beagle]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

[couta1]

Hard one to figure why the market thinks its only worth 51 cents ? Any thoughts anyone ?, good bad and ugly will all be considered.

The market doesnt currently think, it reacts like a rabid dog, probably should be put down or at least tranquilized.