OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[trader_jackson]

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

Yup, and OCA have since come out confirming things really are quite okay... doesn't seem to have helped.
ARV stabilized somewhat (in fact it was lower on Tuesday at $1.05, OCA was still in the 60's then)

[Dlownz]

Well asking for thoughts.. could it be a reaction from kiwisaver funds having to sell as people panic and change to more Conservative funds. So they are forced to sell to free up capital which get put into cash funds etc.

[Dlownz]

And I'm very tempted to get back in. But still feel there's going to be bigger badder news next week which will cause yet another big dip. OCAs being punished but Sum, rym has all lost close to 50% in one month.

[Baa_Baa]

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

Use your TA, it could easily go a lot lower, or not. TA reads sentiment, right now, which is oozing fear. Fear wants its money back, or whatever is left of it. Fear doesn't count losses until it is free from further loss exposure. Fear doesn't think about buying at all time lows. Fear doesn't think about buying at all! Fear though is what we should all wait for, patiently, after years of FOMO chasing prices higher. Fear sets us up for a lifelong romance with our favourite companies. Embrace the fear, do not succumb to it.

Give your wife your online trading password and ask her to change it and not tell you what it is. Tell her what your TA entry conditions are (maybe a little bit more sophisticated than just an MA cross) and that when you come back to her begging for a food bowl with some other conflicted story about how underpriced it is (FA), to ignore you! You love her enough that you won't resort to domestic violence and she will save from you making a horrible mistake. When the TA strategy is perfectly set up, she will tell you the password (then you should change it again

One could still lose 50% or more on the retirement companies by buying in now, imho, especially if there's a disease calamity (heaven forbid) amongst many other short/medium term risks as this event unfolds. Or not. Have a TA entry indicator and a trigger strategy sorted out, then give the keys to the trade to your wife if you don't or can't trust yourself to be resolutely vigilant.

This is only half tongue in cheek. Were all susceptible to impulse, especially when our expertise is screaming "this is so oversold the market is mad I need to buy buy buy". Um, no.

Never waste a great recession!

[Beagle]

Use your TA, it could easily go a lot lower, or not. TA reads sentiment, right now, which is oozing fear. Fear wants its money back, or whatever is left of it. Fear doesn't count losses until it is free from further loss exposure. Fear doesn't think about buying at all time lows. Fear doesn't think about buying at all! Fear though is what we should all wait for, patiently, after years of FOMO chasing prices higher. Fear sets us up for a lifelong romance with our favourite companies. Embrace the fear, do not succumb to it.

Give your wife your online trading password and ask her to change it and not tell you what it is. Tell her what your TA entry conditions are (maybe a little bit more sophisticated than just an MA cross) and that when you come back to her begging for a food bowl with some other conflicted story about how underpriced it is (FA), to ignore you! You love her enough that you won't resort to domestic violence and she will save from you making a horrible mistake. When the TA strategy is perfectly set up, she will tell you the password (then you should change it again

One could still lose 50% or more on the retirement companies by buying in now, imho, especially if there's a disease calamity (heaven forbid) amongst many other short/medium term risks as this event unfolds. Or not. Have a TA entry indicator and a trigger strategy sorted out, then give the keys to the trade to your wife if you don't or can't trust yourself to be resolutely vigilant.

This is only half tongue in cheek. Were all susceptible to impulse, especially when our expertise is screaming "this is so oversold the market is mad I need to buy buy buy". Um, no.

Never waste a great recession!

That's got to be the post of the week. Well said !!

[ratkin]

Ask yourselves a different question. Instead of asking why it is so low, ask yourself
What will make it go up?

[Beagle]

And I'm very tempted to get back in. But still feel there's going to be bigger badder news next week which will cause yet another big dip. OCAs being punished but Sum, rym has all lost close to 50% in one month.

Must admit the share price falls in this sector have all been breathtaking. Sold out of SUM at ~ $9 less than a month ago and now just $4.33 and was only $3.97 at one point today.
Falls over the last month
OCA $1.23 down to 51 cents = lost 59%
SUM $9.20 down to $4.33 = lost 53%
RYM $17.00 down to $8.40 = lost 51%
ARV $1.89 down to $1.08 = lost 43%
MET - On the above basis I expect MET to fall to ~ $3.50 if the takeover offer is withdrawn for any reason. Trading at just $5.12, the market must think the chances of this deal proceeding are less than 50%.

Conclusion - The whole sector is under extreme pressure.

[peat]

Ask yourselves a different question. Instead of asking why it is so low, ask yourself
What will make it go up?

when more people choose to buy shares than those choosing to sell them.
As Baa Baa describes I think there are a lot of people choosing to get out at any cost and this creates an oversupply at the precise time that few people are prepared to buy. Think back to when a share would go UP 3% on a no news day. That was demand and not much supply. Now we are in the exact opposite of that. And a lot of shares were dumped on the market recently. There is no doubt a glut of Oceania shares out there in weak hands. Eventually they'll find a better home and the price should stabilize and might even revert to mean. If you have a medium term time frame >3 years think how things might normalise again.

[Baa_Baa]

Must admit the share price falls in this sector have all been breathtaking. Sold out of SUM at ~ $9 less than a month ago and now just $4.33 and was only $3.97 at one point today.
Falls over the last month
OCA $1.23 down to 51 cents = lost 59%
SUM $9.20 down to $4.33 = lost 53%
RYM $17.00 down to $8.40 = lost 51%
ARV $1.89 down to $1.08 = lost 43%
MET - On the above basis I expect MET to fall to ~ $3.50 if the takeover offer is withdrawn for any reason. Trading at just $5.12, the market must think the chances of this deal proceeding are less than 50%.

Conclusion - The whole sector is under extreme pressure.

The beginning of a setup for a lifetime of successful investing. Don't waste a decent recession.

[clip]

It's a frustrating time to be in - on the one hand I am lucky I was able to utilize kiwisaver to buy our first home september last year, just in time. On the other hand, I have no money to capitalize on this situation 😅😥