OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Maverick]

While the ludicrous imbalance of fear and margin calls v's "patient buyers" or " buyers with no cash left "are the only drivers of this situation (I will not call it a functioning market) there are a few positive considerations;
-care suites must surely be in red hot demand right now,and this is where the good money is made.
-embedded value will be realised as predictable as concrete setting, after all, are our community of clients going somewhere else?
- as Beagle correctly reminds us, a load of weekly GOVT funding is certain.
- GOVT injected stimulus into the economy will certainly eventually end up in a combo of NZSX and property prices.
- when we emerge from the "lost 3 months in NZ" we will all be 3 months older.

... now here's the kicker, Earle has said there has been no noticible change (up until last weeks announcement) that anything has changed in sales , resales performance etc.....
so.....reworking my spreadsheets assuming that NO transactions of anything property based happens in the next 2 months ahead then OCA should make 50m (pre tax) underlying profit FY2020.

Thats a stunning return at even 50 cents SP!

Will this company go bust in the mean time, why would it?

[value_investor]

While the ludicrous imbalance of fear and margin calls v's "patient buyers" or " buyers with no cash left "are the only drivers of this situation (I will not call it a functioning market) there are a few positive considerations;
-care suites must surely be in red hot demand right now,and this is where the good money is made.
-embedded value will be realised as predictable as concrete setting, after all, are our community of clients going somewhere else?
- as Beagle correctly reminds us, a load of weekly GOVT funding is certain.
- GOVT injected stimulus into the economy will certainly eventually end up in a combo of NZSX and property prices.
- when we emerge from the "lost 3 months in NZ" we will all be 3 months older.

... now here's the kicker, Earle has said there has been no noticible change (up until last weeks announcement) that anything has changed in sales , resales performance etc.....
so.....reworking my spreadsheets assuming that NO transactions of anything property based happens in the next 2 months ahead then OCA should make 50m (pre tax) underlying profit FY2020.

Thats a stunning return at even 50 cents SP!

Will this company go bust in the mean time, why would it?

I expect the upswing to be short and sharp, getting in at these prices are probably a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Why wouldn't you..

[Beagle]

Thanks for reworking the numbers Mav. Keep you chin up mate.

[bull....]

While the ludicrous imbalance of fear and margin calls v's "patient buyers" or " buyers with no cash left "are the only drivers of this situation (I will not call it a functioning market) there are a few positive considerations;
-care suites must surely be in red hot demand right now,and this is where the good money is made.
-embedded value will be realised as predictable as concrete setting, after all, are our community of clients going somewhere else?
- as Beagle correctly reminds us, a load of weekly GOVT funding is certain.
- GOVT injected stimulus into the economy will certainly eventually end up in a combo of NZSX and property prices.
- when we emerge from the "lost 3 months in NZ" we will all be 3 months older.

... now here's the kicker, Earle has said there has been no noticible change (up until last weeks announcement) that anything has changed in sales , resales performance etc.....
so.....reworking my spreadsheets assuming that NO transactions of anything property based happens in the next 2 months ahead then OCA should make 50m (pre tax) underlying profit FY2020.

Thats a stunning return at even 50 cents SP!

Will this company go bust in the mean time, why would it?

could be a load of empty care beds to come as well and i mean with the property development side in limbo as well empty care beds they be broke in a worse case senario. the market is right

[dobby41]

I expect the upswing to be short and sharp, getting in at these prices are probably a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Why wouldn't you..

I'd expect that with the gyrations we have already had (with a few people burnt a second time) that an upswing will be slow.
It may pop up but profit takers (or lower loss takers) will step in and punt the price down a bit again.
I doubt it pops up as fast as it went down.

[Maverick]

could be a load of empty care beds to come as well and i mean with the property development side in limbo as well empty care beds they be broke in a worse case senario. the market is right

Yep, you nailed it once again Bull.
Property will definitely crash and old people will either all die over this or no longer need late stage care anymore because Covid has stopped cancer and those other details that used to happen.
OCA is in big trouble , thanks for bringing it to our attention.

[bull....]

Yep, you nailed it once again Bull.
Property will definitely crash and old people will either all die over this or no longer need late stage care anymore because Covid has stopped cancer and those other details that used to happen.
OCA is in big trouble , thanks for bringing it to our attention.

I didnt say the property market would crash , i said in limbo means not doing anything. retirement stocks need a rising , good market to make there margins.
covid is worse than cancer etc because it kills and spreads with such speed so yes a spread in a care bed facitilty may potentially empty the whole place which means no income from care beds and there may not be the people to replace them if the virus is rampant in society. as an investor its not all rosy and bullish people need to think of every senario for stocks , obviously your bullish and im not so that sums the market up beautifully dont you think

[Preston]

I don’t see how demand will get less here. We tried to get my great Aunty into home a couple of years ago. Told it was a two year wait for a half decent one. My old man ended up just chatting to a guy and bought one at a “lesser” establishment through the back door. The waiting times for some folks are very long. By the time you need one, it’s too late.

And secondly if elderly people contract this thing and it has ongoing implications, a care home is the best place for them?

I can see balance sheets being affected by property value yes, but bottom line after it washes out, not so much. I imagine there will be some teething time to get back to normal Ops.

[forest]

Some better news, Chairperson Elizabeth Coutts has been buying shares in OCA for 56 cents.
Mmn, she might have read Beagles post and realises the discount to NTA.

[macduffy]

Some better news, Chairperson Elizabeth Coutts has been buying shares in OCA for 56 cents.
Mmn, she might have read Beagles post and realises the discount to NTA.

More likely she realises that it's not the end of the world for OCA and that it has a prosperous future and a healthy shareprice once this crisis is over.