OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[iceman]

Thanks for an interesting and informative post Brfc

[Pintboy568]

This forum may be small but it is perfectly formed and so much better than Hotcopper.

[value_investor]

Bought heavily earlier on in the week, glad I got in at that price. Still looking to add more onto this, based on what's happening. It's going to be long and drawn out but the demand side will always be there in the long term.

Interesting times in the investing side, alot of people selling out quickly. Peoples time horizons must be incredibly short, I'm in for the long term but even if you're in for 10 years, you should be okay with what's happening.

[MauroNZ]

Hi guys

I have been reluctant to post as i am a bit biased in this industry having owned and operated rest homes/retirement village since the early 90" s

Currently i only own a rest home having sold my previous operations a few years back.

My thoughts is only to do with the rest-home side of things

Thoughout the years i have been involved the industry as become tougher and harder to run (which as been good and Bad ) but with all the rules and regulations the DHB as still havent come up with a plan to stop the influx of people needing care and the service that we have to offer

For a example have a few years back my breakeven point was approx 72 % occ but with the extra Wages/Compliance costs it now is currently approx 80%
However once you get over the 80% cause of the increased fees i due to inflation etc the profit is roughly the same as it was when the breakeven point was 72%
So if you take extra care etc for the residents you should be running around 95% occ rate which i am pleased to say my facility achieves

NOW to the present situation we find ourselves in today apart from extra costs in following daily DHB procedures mainly cleaning products we are currently 100% full with a waiting list as people see us as one of the safest place for the elderly ( We had a vacancy last week and there was a list of clients wanting the room )
my staff are well aware of there responsibilities and i am proud of everyone of them
In Regards to Oceania they will still be making money in todays world for the reasons above (Even though Sales will be non exsitent and this will effect there bottom line )alot companies cant say this whilst we are in lock down
So at $1.20 before this crises it deserved to be discounted to due being no sales but at .40 the other day and today at .59 cents it is once in a lifetime bargin
Accordingly i dont normally buy shares but i have been buying truckloads at these prices
DYOR Thanks

Such a valuable post, thanks for it. I wish I had seen this posted when price was 0.40.

[carrom74]

Such a valuable post, thanks for it. I wish I had seen this posted when price was 0.40.

Still have a slim chance to get in tomorrow- but certainly not at 40cents...but even at 50 cents it’s worth it.

[Entrep]

Still have a slim chance to get in tomorrow- but certainly not at 40cents...but even at 50 cents it’s worth it.

Tomorrow? What’s the rush. Next few weeks will be BRUTAL

[cymonger]

Still have a slim chance to get in tomorrow- but certainly not at 40cents...but even at 50 cents it’s worth it.

There will be a dozen more Black Mondays before this thing is over. Maybe a lot more than that. The situation in the US is gonna get really bad, which is gonna drag the NZ market down with it. I hate to be gloomy, but the virus is not being handled there.

[ratkin]

There will be a dozen more Black Mondays before this thing is over. Maybe a lot more than that. The situation in the US is gonna get really bad, which is gonna drag the NZ market down with it. I hate to be gloomy, but the virus is not being handled there.

Wall street a pretty tough crowd though, they will probably see the virus being handled badly as a good thing, for them the quicker everyone gets it the better.

[blackcap]

Wall street a pretty tough crowd though, they will probably see the virus being handled badly as a good thing, for them the quicker everyone gets it the better.

Totally agree. No sentiment or empathy with markets. If it gets bad in America and a lot of old people die, while the young are out there working, that will only be good for Wall St.

[allfromacell]

Wall street a pretty tough crowd though, they will probably see the virus being handled badly as a good thing, for them the quicker everyone gets it the better.

Everyone getting the virus quickly is not a good thing for the markets, economy or humanity. No matter how you frame it we cannot let that happen. We don't know how long our immune antibodies will last against this particular virus, it could be forever or just months. Imagine if 50% of the population gets it with millions of deaths and we don't even develop long lasting immunity. Going for a rapid burn out or herd immunity solution will be devastating, millions of people will die and health systems would be completely overrun, imagine the chaos in poorer less developed nations.

A full scale lock-down is the only way to beat this, fortunately for NZ and OCA we appear to be flattening the curve with 3 consecutive days of slowing growth and that's not even allowing enough time to take into account the impact of the L4 lockdown. If tomorrows numbers are down again on today's I suspect OCA SP will close higher. OCA at $0.40 was pricing in a US equivalent disaster and fortunately we've had strong leadership who've been able to make the pragmatic scientific based decision to lock-down quickly. I suspect as long as we can maintain low local spread and return to BAU slowly maintaining strict boarder measures OCA will be just fine and the SP will soon return to $1+.