OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[TobyPascoe92]

Thanks Beagle, always appreciate your thoughts & advice.

[allfromacell]

Lol you've got to feel for Matthew Ward selling all those shares for half the value of today's SP. Probably for the best he's the former CFO.

[bull....]

40c to 88c lol the madness of the market sometimes or is it the money printing

[Ggcc]

40c to 88c lol the madness of the market sometimes or is it the money printing

I agree for the short term the rise was too fast, but my guess within 6 months this will be back around $1 or higher.

[bull....]

I agree for the short term the rise was too fast, but my guess within 6 months this will be back around $1 or higher.

guess the virus will determine that.

[Ggcc]

guess the virus will determine that.

Agreed with that

[Beagle]

I got a few at 60 cents, not enough with the benefit of hindsight. Those buying at 40 cents when the virus looked like it might have a massive effect on this sector should give themselves a good pat on the back, well done.

I have a very strong preference for MET where it is now compared to OCA in the 80's. Adjusted for the much lower virus risk environment currently presiding, given we're right out the other side of the bell curve, I think MET at $3.77 are doing a very good job of mimicking the extreme value OCA presented at 40 cents.

Sure MET aren't at a 60% discount to NTA, (like OCA were at 40 cents), but they're at a 46% discount and taking into account the much lower current risk environment I think that's an extraordinary opportunity.

OCA in the mid 80's on the other hand is probably only trading at 5-10% discount to virus adjusted NTA.

[Cadalac123]

I got a few at 60 cents, not enough with the benefit of hindsight. Those buying at 40 cents when the virus looked like it might have a massive effect on this sector should give themselves a good pat on the back, well done.

I have a very strong preference for MET where it is now compared to OCA in the 80's. Adjusted for the much lower virus risk environment currently presiding, given we're right out the other side of the bell curve, I think MET at $3.77 are doing a very good job of mimicking the extreme value OCA presented at 40 cents.

Sure MET aren't at a 60% discount to NTA, (like OCA were at 40 cents), but they're at a 46% discount and taking into account the much lower current risk environment I think that's an extraordinary opportunity.

OCA in the mid 80's on the other hand is probably only trading at 5-10% discount to virus adjusted NTA.

Yeah, 40c was ridiculous. I think 80c-1$ is more than close to "fair value" from an IV perspective, until we get more consolidated forecasts and numbers.

Will be interesting to see how MET behaves. I think from a general perspective this sector is one heavily favoured by institutes and will probably prevail as our economies "long-standers", with demand not going out of the door anytime soon. I do somewhat favour ARV - however from a price action perspective its not really trading at a discount but fundamentally and balance sheet wise looking somewhat solid.

[Beagle]

I'd rather sit on cash than pay full price for shares like ARV. Massive value or I'm happy to keep my powder dry.

[Cyclical]

Just thinking aloud here as in two minds about this one atm. It's been a good run and I'm wondering if it's time to bank the profits and build up the powder store for the other bargains that are around the corner, or maybe redirect those funds to a certain other bargain stock in the sector? Or should I just park these OCA ones in the bottom drawer for the long term? I'm thinking I should exercise some patience and do the latter. And if that proves to be a bad move and it drifts lower during the recession, well I guess I'll add some more. I guess in an effort not to be classified as a trader by the IRD, I should also just sit on them. What are others thoughts?

Not sure if it's been captured earlier in the thread, but in today's 1pm C19 update, there was talk of helping out the care providers towards the extra costs incurred with lockdown measures, which is good to hear.