OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Nigel]

Long-term, this sector will do just fine. There will undoubtedly be ups and downs along the way, but I think OCA will be a strong performer in the long run. If you want to (attempt to) trade the shorter-term trends, go for it, but I'm comfortable buying as funds allow and look forward to $1+ shareprices again once confidence returns to the market.

[Balance]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

[Ggcc]

someone is keen to dump their shares......

[Cyclical]

someone is keen to dump their shares......

Yeah, a few hundred thousand in the last few minutes. It's been happening for a week or so, but looks to have suddenly ramped up. Whenever you see buy support of a few hundred thousand, it gets wiped out same day.

[Balance]

someone is keen to dump their shares......

Switching over to MET?

[Leftfield]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

Thanks for posting. Is their a link to the full report?

[Cyclical]

Switching over to MET?

Haha, wondered the same. That would just see my portfolio seesaw atm, have an even split between the 2 (as at 10am...might be getting more OCA at this rate).

[Ggcc]

Switching over to MET?

I believe many capital raises are around the corner, not only for OCA but many other companies. Maybe fund managers are getting ready by selling shares to get money ready for their quotas for good companies, as many businesses will need money.

[Balance]

Thanks for posting. Is their a link to the full report?

It is not public information. If you are a client of the firm or knows someone who is, then it is possible to obtain a copy. It is from an Australasian broking firm with offices right around the world.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Balance. Appreciated.