OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bottomfeeder]

I have started buying into OCA. I don't mind a capital raise, as long as its not to cover losses. However I would prefer reinvestment of dividends. Cut the dividend. Then as the price goes down, I will buy more.

[Valiant]

Thanks for the summary Balance.

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

[Waltzing]

In 5 years time the increase in money supply will make this sector whole again. History repeats itself and next time the bubble could be even higher than this time.

[nztx]

I believe many capital raises are around the corner, not only for OCA but many other companies. Maybe fund managers are getting ready by selling shares to get money ready for their quotas for good companies, as many businesses will need money.

In this Sector, I wouldn't expect so many Cap Raises, as some of the other Sectors

Anyone see any term financing maturing with companies in this sector which would likely necessitate a CR
or bankers not prepared to renew / roll over for further term ?

[Balance]

In this Sector, I wouldn't expect so many Cap Raises, as some of the other Sectors

Anyone see any term financing maturing with companies in this sector which would likely necessitate a CR
or bankers not prepared to renew / roll over for further term ?

There's plenty of money out there still - AIA's $1.2 billion gives us the best idea of how investors feel about putting in more money into a good long term infrastructure company hit by a shorter term (between 1 to 2 years) issue.

The smart companies will do what IPL has just done - in the name of getting well-positioned, and raise the funds while the appetite is there.

[Maverick]

In this Sector, I wouldn't expect so many Cap Raises, as some of the other Sectors

Anyone see any term financing maturing with companies in this sector which would likely necessitate a CR
or bankers not prepared to renew / roll over for further term ?

nztx, OCA have already told us they were preparing to do a bond issue ( not share issue) in their 1HY report. This was pre-virus. Cant see why this won't be happening sooner rather later.

[Waltzing]

well they could just slow down the development for a while but if the virus is limited hazard pay might not cuase a pay rise..

it just depends if they can defer there capital expenditure.

DISC: sold out at 1.30 and lost the profit selling out of AIR not fast enough even after beagles warning... in shock.. but did not know it.. even after tracking the virus from late january.

everyone in the country will be wanting to buy there lovely new woolen fashionable face masks manufactured in the south island by those wonderful new italian sock making machines , and that includes every one in rest homes..

if they go public prehaps woolen socks and face masks are the next big thing... the say they cant wait to have Kathmandu open. they are apparently there biggest stockest..

[King1212]

The boss spoke on the NBR....saying he is very confident with the company future

[Waltzing]

I lost my lovely profits from this stock in the AIR NZ crash even after beagle warned and i was tracking the virus from january. It appear it was already in europe pre xmas. If OCA drops back to the 60's i will double or triple my current holding. Yes i bought back in but missed 40 cents. I must have been out riding the hills and in shock...Those of use who rode the crash down i think are only just recovering our wits to trade again and invest. The GFC was a slow affair , now i would like to see sells offs this winter but the shear amount of QE may not give us those wonderful prices again.. pitty. Still theres a bull market coming....And after putting new systems in place over the last 10 years we are now ready to start the rolls outs...

[winner69]

Short but sweet preso

Doesn’t seem to be anything new.

Can borrow heaps more if needed ..that’s good

Hopefully get a few fund managers to buy more

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...774/322107.pdf