OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Ggcc]

If you believe in the stock, take Warren Buffett’s advice and help yourself to more when they are on sale. Nobody can pick the bottom.

My problem is I don’t want to do a couta. Originally I did and glad I didn’t. I don’t know what is a bargain anymore. Luckily I picked up about 40,000 shares below this price, but was that a bargain.... currently but tell me in 6 months time lol

[Balance]

Just like all that ‘rinse and washing’ or whatever it was described as when they share price hung around 105 after that previous Macca dump

History repeating ...no doubt same players and they’ve got heaps more to play with this time.

At the ground level, I am told that international investors/shareholders are selling out because of the disastrous situation with retirement villages and care homes in Europe & US.

Understandable that they do not believe the situation in the sector in Australasia is under control - question of time for them before the sector implodes like it has in Europe & US.

[Maverick]

Beagle cautioned a wee while back about the greater influence on a share price of perception verses reality.

Seems to be playing out just like that. All RV stocks have reverted, for now, to SP values of 12 months ago. The stand out exception being good ol` OCA which is currently about 30% less than 12 months ago.

This mornings release has basically said all is well in the hood, no surprises there. In fact I see this report having more positives in it than its peers can possibly have. But here we are, with the SP languishing by a country mile behind its cousins.

I put this down to a combo of 2 things.
Firstly, the 38% of stock recently sold into the market is still shuffling around from loose hands. Good to see ACC has now captured 5 % of this.
Secondly , OCA`s point of difference being late care stage is surely being seen as riskier in this environment, therefore "avoid'.

Both of these SP impediments are quite temporary , (unless of course COVID does get its way which is looking ever less likely- even then its still temporary- just longer temporary ).

As a long term/ value investor I`m very happy with today's report, its more or less business as usual with 6 week lost of development and ILU sales (not care-suites) . I considered this actually remarkably good when compared to most other NZSX industries.

"perception" surely is mostly why the SP is where it is - for now. In fact, value investors must embrace these uncomfortable SP times as this is how opportunities arise for the "small end of town" in a supposedly "efficient market".

It is only a matter of how much time before perception gives way to reality of how the business is actually performing.

FWIW surely it has to be revalued to some degree when the FY result turns out fairly healthy 2 months from now.

[Blue Skies]

At the ground level, I am told that international investors/shareholders are selling out because of the disastrous situation with retirement villages and care homes in Europe & US.

Understandable that they do not believe the situation in the sector in Australasia is under control - question of time for them before the sector implodes like it has in Europe & US.

Thanks Balance, interesting. Makes sense, couldn't understand why all retirement stocks suffering but had put it down to anticipated downward pressure on housing market which looks as if will be fairly short-lived .

[Beagle]

No question about it, it was a good solid update. The team at OCA are doing a very good job. Must confess I wasn't aware that care suites could still be sold under level 4 and 3 lockdown protocol's so that was a pleasant surprise. I think its worth reiterating that most people move into an OCA facility because of need or the future perceived need for care so its more a needs based decision than anything else.

Hard to put an estimate on FY20 and FY21 earnings, (so I won't try) but the whole market appears to be looking through to the other side of this Virus so in that context I think the shares are very sound value in the low 70's and looking ahead to FY22 earnings they are probably very cheap.

I agree Maverick. Perception, (at some stage), must collide with the reality of how well N.Z. as a whole is managing this crisis and OCA as a company is performing. Patient shareholders should do well from here over the long run. I also concur that a lot of weak hands from the Macquarie $1.20 (jacked up ?) placement have probably decided to cut their losses. Point is Macca's have gone and their overhang has likewise been removed from the market.

I can't see a lot to like on the NZX, (the bounce off 23 March 2020 lows has been too strong for my liking), with the odd exception that includes this one.

I know Coutts is back into this too

[nztx]

My problem is I don’t want to do a couta. Originally I did and glad I didn’t. I don’t know what is a bargain anymore. Luckily I picked up about 40,000 shares below this price, but was that a bargain.... currently but tell me in 6 months time lol

" I don’t know what is a bargain anymore"

Yes .. so very true too - Ggcc & not only with OCA either

[Fred_Rubble]

Added to my existing holding today - solid unspectacular update.

The tailwinds of this sector keep me invested. Just wish mine was the green variety.

[Cyclical]

Yep. Looks like they are keen to keep feeding them in at the 73-74c range...it just edged into 72 the other day, but not for long. They'll probably dump a bunch into that nice bed of support at 73 later this arvo, after the 74c buyers have all dried up...and there seem to be plenty of those off the back of this morning's presentation.

It's an encouraging sign that there was still nice fat support at the end of the day at 73c, ~460k on the buy side that wasn't taken out. Hopefully that means whoever was dumping have finished...only time will tell. Maybe they were taken by the presso ;-)

[winner69]

The world in a sorry state today because guru economist Milton Friedman Said “the only responsibility of business is to maximize shortterm profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs.”


We’ve got to change that “Maximize short-term profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs” attitude to “maximize long-term benefits for all people and nature.”

I don’t give a stuff what Oceania’s short term profits are as long as they work towards creating a better life for all of us in the future.

[Beagle]

The world in a sorry state today because guru economist Milton Friedman Said “the only responsibility of business is to maximize shortterm profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs.”


We’ve got to change that “Maximize short-term profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs” attitude to “maximize long-term benefits for all people and nature.”

I don’t give a stuff what Oceania’s short term profits are as long as they work towards creating a better life for all of us in the future.

I think they're very much focused on residents care needs, no question whatsoever about that.