OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

They’ve also said this

The largest headwind was a holdover from November in the form of Ryman (RYM, +8.2%). As discussed then, their H1 result was actually quite weak. A notable uptick in inventory leaves them facing a tough task to sell the major development deliveries that they have planned for the second half. However, this mattered little in the face of a perception that NZ and Melbourne housing is turning up and a takeover bid for Metlifecare which put a rocket under the entire sector. Never mind that the MET bid was at book value, whereas Ryman trades at 3.4x book value. Better hope their developments keep getting delivered and sold. Our scepticism regarding book values in the sector is long-standing given that they bear little relationship to the free cashflows generated in the individual village accounts.

[nevchev]

They’ve also said this

The largest headwind was a holdover from November in the form of Ryman (RYM, +8.2%). As discussed then, their H1 result was actually quite weak. A notable uptick in inventory leaves them facing a tough task to sell the major development deliveries that they have planned for the second half. However, this mattered little in the face of a perception that NZ and Melbourne housing is turning up and a takeover bid for Metlifecare which put a rocket under the entire sector. Never mind that the MET bid was at book value, whereas Ryman trades at 3.4x book value. Better hope their developments keep getting delivered and sold. Our scepticism regarding book values in the sector is long-standing given that they bear little relationship to the free cashflows generated in the individual village accounts.

Thanks for that.Its an interesting insight into the workings of an investment firm

[winner69]

Remember this from an AR

"Generally, the shares under the 2017 LTIP Scheme will be eligible to vest if, at the vesting date (which is the business day after release of the financial statements for the year ended 31 May 2020), the participant remains employed by Oceania and the performance hurdles are achieved. The performance hurdles require Oceania’s performance to meet, or exceed, an underlying Earnings per Share Compound Annual Growth Rate ("EPS CAGR") of 35% per annum or greater, over the three year period to 31 May 2020."

I don’t think the ‘rules’ have changed.

My calculations reckon that hurdle is Underlying Earnings of 13.8 cents/share or about $84m for this year ended 31May.

Forecasts by some on this thread suggest a big fail coming up

So no shares under the 2017 LTIP ....bugger for Earl.

But you never know ...corporates these are soft as will probably say there’s been extenuating circumstances and Earl and his team have done a stupendous job so we will fix him up somehow.

Aligning managers interests with shareholders eh.

[Beagle]

Bought even more today for reasons previously stated. Doing a Couta1. Maverick and Couta1 will be proud of me.

[Baa_Baa]

Bought even more today for reasons previously stated. Doing a Couta1. Maverick and Couta1 will be proud of me.

Me too, relatively speaking.

[Cyclical]

Bought even more today for reasons previously stated. Doing a Couta1. Maverick and Couta1 will be proud of me.

Contemplating it myself but already makes up about 50% of my portfolio...does that put me in the Couta1 camp? Doesn't look like my buy at for the last few days at 74c is going to get hit and do I want to reach higher? Looks like Salt may have been the culprits for the sell down and have done their dash

[Beagle]

Yes, Couta1 and Maverick would be very proud, you can't have too many

[Cyclical]

Yes, Couta1 and Maverick would be very proud, you can't have too many

Hmm, only if you can give me assurances it fits within the "heads you win, tails you don't lose" camp...

[Beagle]

Hmm, only if you can give me assurances it fits within the "heads you win, tails you don't lose" camp...

See my post #2511 in the MET thread for my thoughts on that. There are no guarantees however...but on the balance of probabilities, its looks good and I am voting with both feet. For what its worth I have double the $ amount in OCA than I presently have in MET.

[Cyclical]

For what its worth I have double the $ amount in OCA than I presently have in MET.

Yeah, me too as it happens. I made the comment a week or two ago in the MET thread that I think a 33% gain in OCA is probably a safer bet than MET, and that's reflected in my holdings. Both have been great to me since March though, except for the bit where I didn't by enough at the time