OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Hope this long term story is a beaut.

NAV forecasts $54m for F20 underlying earnings while beagle has said something less than last year.

So underlying earnings declining 2 years in a row ...not what BaaBaa and his recurring growth in underlying would like to see.

Suppose we got sucked in that 35% pa growth from 2017 that Earl needed to get his bonus ....going to be a long way short of that

But be patient ...it’s a long game......only hope we not saying that in 2025

[Beagle]

Underlying profit would have been up but for Covid 19 so no worries. Underlying profit after adjusting for C19 impact is what's important.

[winner69]

Underlying profit would have been up but for Covid 19 so no worries. Underlying profit after adjusting for C19 impact is what's important.

Hope they make a decent number up for impact of C19 so we can normalise things ...unless this the new normal.

Greencross Health were a bit dumb the other day — they said C19 had NO impact — you would have thought they would have a number up and said that $Xm was the impact.

[Paradox]

thanks winner69.

Does anyone know how much OCA on average charge for a new village unit (or) a resale? For 2019, the new sales count was 76 and resales was 83 (so, 159 in total). The revenue from all village operations was $24m. That brings the average to $151k. (excludes DMF);

is $151k close enough? it seems a bit low; am i missing something?

cheers

[winner69]

thanks winner69.

Does anyone know how much OCA on average charge for a new village unit (or) a resale? For 2019, the new sales count was 76 and resales was 83 (so, 159 in total). The revenue from all village operations was $24m. That brings the average to $151k. (excludes DMF);

is $151k close enough? it seems a bit low; am i missing something?h

cheers

Lots of sale prices of different things in this presentation.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

[Beagle]

The last paragraph on page 34 is more than a little bit interesting. My rough guess of $40m underlying for the year could be miles out depending on how many units they have sold. Anyone's guess what the underlying profit for the year will be eh Winner. What we know though is NAV was $1.15 inclusive of work in progress as at 30 November 2019.

I feel well positioned

[King1212]

Average brokers ..$1.19

Mcewan broker... recommend hold.

U are so close master Beagle

[winner69]

The last paragraph on page 34 is more than a little bit interesting. My rough guess of $40m underlying for the year could be miles out depending on how many units they have sold. Anyone's guess what the underlying profit for the year will be eh Winner. What we know though is NAV was $1.15 inclusive of work in progress as at 30 November 2019.

I feel well positioned

I reckon $71m

Bit shy of $84m where Earl said it would be a couple of years — but at least an improvement on last year

They’ve got to break this habit of selling heaps more stuff and making stuff all more ....$71m will do that

[Beagle]

Good point King1212

https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEAN...68/financials/

Average broker forecast is eps of 12 cps up 50% on last years 8 cps ! That would put them on a current year PE of 7.5 which is stupidly cheap.

I better buy some more, you can't have too many

[Paradox]

The last paragraph on page 34 is more than a little bit interesting. My rough guess of $40m underlying for the year could be miles out depending on how many units they have sold. Anyone's guess what the underlying profit for the year will be eh Winner. What we know though is NAV was $1.15 inclusive of work in progress as at 30 November 2019.

I feel well positioned

For the first 6-months, they had sold new/resold 186 units & suites.