OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth

How do you know how much its really worth? We only know what the market is at current prepared to pay for it, which might be more or less than what it is worth. Anyway - SP nicely staying North of the MA100 and MA200 - no worries ;

[Beagle]

Without digging into the IPO documentation again, (hey its the weekend) I think the confusion is highly likely to stem from the accounting standards.
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) requires property investment companies, (which is what retirement companies basically are) to include revaluations of their property portfolio each year, as well as all other realised profits into earnings under the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These are then included in the figure reported as Net Profit before tax but the revaluations are of course exempt for tax under N.Z. tax law so are excluded for tax purposes. So all clear as mud so far ?

EBITDA on the other hand is the figure that will exclude the above annual portfolio revaluation but include gains actually realised during the year (i.e.realised development gains on new units sold and realised gains on resale's of old occupation licenses.

One measure includes all unrealized and realised gains, the other just realised gains.

Underlying profit, (which is my favourite measure) is EDITDA less of course interest, depreciation and amortization.

So all crystal clear then Probably pure coincidence that the two figures are much the same. Let me know if you'd like me to look into this a bit more next week to ensure its just a coincidence the two figures are very similar. Page 14 useful as Winner has suggested but I completely understand most people's eyes will simply glaze over and I don't blame them to be honest.

The key figure to concentrate on and the one all the analysts use for comparison purposes is underlying profit. Underlying profit is forecast at 8.42 cps for FY18.
Now what's the right PE ?, that the debate. Provided they do what they say they will do I see it at 14-15 ($1.18 - $1.26) in 12 months time + 4.7% dividend yield but then I am also hopeful that SUM will be on a 17-18 PE by then which would see them close to $6.

The caveat here however is that if Winston Peter's is the kingmaker and he wants to smash immigration out of the park with the consequent effect on the property market, all bets are off !

Posted 29 July 2017,. emphasis added this time. I believe the issue now is this. We have SUM as a proven performer over the last 6 years on a forward PE of 13.5 and SP is stagnant for want of a better description. With OCA there is no track record of listed performance and we have a one year forecast of 40% profit growth to 8.42 cps. I think given the uncertainty its only natural people want to stick with proven performers, (notice how RYM with the longest track record of proven performance has been least affected) and this newly listed stock deserves to trade at a material PE discount to SUM. About a 2 PE discount is the absolute minimum discount I think is appropriate so the shares probably are about fair - full value on a relative basis. I think you can lay the blame directly at the feet of the prospect of a left wing Government for the current softness in the retirement sector stocks.

[whatsup]

Great to see OCA awake from its month long slumber this afo & up 4% on the day

[Beagle]

Great to see OCA awake from its month long slumber this afo & up 4% on the day

Yeap I agree. I still have SUM OCA.

[flyer]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth

THANKS - Just the kick it needed.

[huxley]

Well.. Winston has officially yet to make up his mind, but the market seems to have decided he's sticking to the status quo - LONG LIVE THE KING

[horus1]

It seems to me he hasnt got what he wants and is holding out for more from either nat or lab. The excuses are ludicrous . Who would vote for this ,NZ FIRST , shambles.

[Ggcc]

Big numbers today on market. I do wonder when the government get formed whether the price will go up or down. If labour gets in we might see a drop and if National gets in we will see a steady gain I think.

[trader_jackson]

Not big numbers for OCA though, or the rest of the retirement sector (perhaps surprisingly), or at least not yet

The recent, relatively fast, bounce from the 95-96c back to $1.03 - $1.04 shows they think National will get in (my thinking anyway)

On another note, such a beautiful day in Auckland today, went to have a look at OCA's Maureen Plowman Development - pretty impressive what they are going to put in there - 64 Apartments; 12 Care Suites; 32 Care Studios - given the fairly small 7,126 sqm site. Big crane there with the concrete truck poring the basement parking level (I think there are 2 levels of underground parking, with 5 levels on top) - expensive stuff.

Likely to be mostly million dollar plus apartments I reckon and I'm not sure if there is any retirement village in the country where you can walk about 20m and be on the (actual) beach - sell down to begin in May 2019 (so a while away) and interest is likely to be strong.

[huxley]

Not big numbers for OCA though, or the rest of the retirement sector (perhaps surprisingly), or at least not yet

The recent, relatively fast, bounce from the 95-96c back to $1.03 - $1.04 shows they think National will get in (my thinking anyway)

On another note, such a beautiful day in Auckland today, went to have a look at OCA's Maureen Plowman Development - pretty impressive what they are going to put in there - 64 Apartments; 12 Care Suites; 32 Care Studios - given the fairly small 7,126 sqm site. Big crane there with the concrete truck poring the basement parking level (I think there are 2 levels of underground parking, with 5 levels on top) - expensive stuff.

Likely to be mostly million dollar plus apartments I reckon and I'm not sure if there is any retirement village in the country where you can walk about 20m and be on the (actual) beach - sell down to begin in May 2019 (so a while away) and interest is likely to be strong.

All retirement stocks down today, cheers heard from the Labour offices...