OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

More people are currently leaving NZ than coming in and on top of that more NZ residents are leaving than coming in. doesn’t seem too good for OCA or any property share to me. Still hold tho.

That's not what the recent modelling says.

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...etric%20models.


NZ population steadily rising. One of the reasons our housing market doing that well.

Where would your statement come from?

[James108]

That's not what the recent modelling says.

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...etric%20models.


NZ population steadily rising. One of the reasons our housing market doing that well.

Where would your statement come from?

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-been-arriving

The stats do not back up the narrative that a net increase in residents are coming back to NZ due to coronavirus safe haven status.

[King1212]

not sure which one to trust eh....

hold on...i will call my mate...one of national MP to leak out the legit data....

[James108]

The graph in Black Peters link depicts a long trend of population growth and is not incompatible with the recent months where more people have left the country.

[winner69]

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-been-arriving

The stats do not back up the narrative that a net increase in residents are coming back to NZ due to coronavirus safe haven status.

Seems pretty convincing doesn’t it James

Through thick and thin and good times and bad times more NZers have left than come back every year since the 80’s

But I’m told there are a million kiwis overseas and they all going to come home over next year or so so that’s good.

[Beagle]

A few thoughts. We only went to Covid level 1 in early June 2020 so the above stat's don't reflect the desirability of our Covid status from an international perspective.
Likewise its only in the last month or two that Covid 19 has really become really rampant in some developed countries, (America), a good example.
It takes time for ex pats to uproot their lives, their homes and business's and get back here and that assumes there's sufficient flights and quarantine facilities.
Anecdotally real estate clients of mine are reporting very brisk business from ex pat's prepared to pay top dollars for the right home for their family.

I think it is highly likely we'll see a significant number of those ex pats come back in the next year or two which will be good for the sector.
Interesting to note that housing stock level's for sale across the industry according to REINZ data is very low. Low stock and emerging higher demand usually has a fairly predictable effect on pricing. I think the house price outlook is considerably less gloomy than almost every economic forecaster (throwing darts ?) is forecasting.

Build it and they will come appears to be some other companies mantra...which usually works for those companies with a stellar reputation for first class care like OCA does. Hope OCA is full steam ahead with its development program.

[BlackPeter]

The graph in Black Peters link depicts a long trend of population growth and is not incompatible with the recent months where more people have left the country.

Fair enough. However - for residential property demand I suppose long term trends are more relevant than arrivals / departures impacted by lock down conditions.

As well - don't forget that at the moment many more people are queuing up for a return than are allowed to come. Gummit closed the tap due to quarantine limitations and told airlines to restrict the incoming traffic. I trust that at some stage they will manage to sort out quarantine and provide places for all who need them.

[James108]

Beagle intuitively I would agree with you but I am conservative by Nature so will remain unconvinced until I see a bit of evidence.

[Beagle]

No harm in being conservative and prudent. I'm not buying any more until I see next weeks result.

[winner69]

Beagle intuitively I would agree with you but I am conservative by Nature so will remain unconvinced until I see a bit of evidence.

Suppose it’ll all change when NZ is no different to the rest of the world (virus wise)