OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Its a possibility, not inevitable, but for some reason doesn't seem to be that much of a factor in any of the other sector companies except MET ? Many other companies would be worse hit, (OCA can still provide care services and sell care suites during lockdown level 4 if reimposed)
Charging for quarantine might slow down the flow a bit https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12349183

..and increased death rates good as well ...improves churn

[Beagle]

OCA managed the risks extremely well last time. Shareholders can feel a sense of pride in having a share in the ownership of a company committed to the very highest standards of care.

[Cyclical]

..and increased death rates good as well ...improves churn

Dude, we don't say that! But seeing as you already went there, one might suggest it would be a double edged sword, due to the culling of potential future customers. Indeed it would be interesting to know what the impact of the virus is having on demand (present and future) in the RV sector in some of the harder hit countries.

[Waltzing]

was only joking about photos... but how long was that queue again? could that be the queue waiting for OCA shares ...once you all get your rich rewards from MET.

as far as property prices go and i rely on my young builder friends as i have no skills in either DIY or property sales and purchase. Interests report is out and prehaps those here with knowledge of the NZ property market may comment.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...d-interestconz

[winner69]

Guru Mark from Craig’s says money flows imply punters buying Oceania with their Met money

[Beagle]

Guru Mark from Craig’s says money flows imply punters buying Oceania with their Met money

Higher $ turnover in ARV today. I think a fair bit is going that way as well as SUM and RYM.
I think there's still a bit of pensiveness with OCA at this point in time with people hanging back waiting for their report on Thursday.
Provided its not awful...

[Baa_Baa]

Oceania Healthcare in the year ending 31 May 2019, with Underlying Net Profit after Tax from continuing operations of $49.7m and Total Comprehensive Income of $99.8m.

Gurus' reckon Underlying Net Profit after Tax:
- Maverick $50m ("very confident") - $53m ("possibility")
- Beagle $40 - $45 ("perhaps overly pessimistic"). Anything >$50m "be impressed"

Even a flat to slightly down result would be awesome considering the period covers the whole of the Covid situation, and increased care worker costs. A lot depends on how sales went I guess. Company trading back above IPO but at discount to NTA. Imagine that, if you stopped the business, liquidated all the assets and paid out shareholders, you'd get more per share than they trade on market today. Weird. Cheap.

So full year results announce on Thursday morning, with live webcast 10:30am. Can hardly wait!

Gltah

[Paradox]

So full year results announce on Thursday morning, with live webcast 10:30am. Can hardly wait!
Gltah

If we take a 5-year and a longer term view, 40-50m in a one-off situation shouldn’t make much of a difference.

Seeing $1.04 today with good support above $1 lately, this augurs well.....

[Waltzing]

praying for a shocker....winner nn said .70?

[Beagle]

Oceania Healthcare in the year ending 31 May 2019, with Underlying Net Profit after Tax from continuing operations of $49.7m and Total Comprehensive Income of $99.8m.

Gurus' reckon Underlying Net Profit after Tax:
- Maverick $50m ("very confident") - $53m ("possibility")
- Beagle $40 - $45 ("perhaps overly pessimistic"). Anything >$50m "be impressed"

Even a flat to slightly down result would be awesome considering the period covers the whole of the Covid situation, and increased care worker costs.

I think that's the key point. Other companies reporting recently, namely ARV and RYM have only reported results that encompass a small initial part of the effect of the Covid 19 lockdown. As you know I have my own views that the total overall cost of Covid 19 could easily run to $10-15m given the intensity within their business model of the care side of things and the number of sites.

There would also have been some impact on sales of independent living units that could push the total overall effect to circa $20m inclusive of profits lost from sales that would otherwise have happened but for Covid 19. In that context even a figure as low as $35m isn't too bad. Market will just be happy to get the result behind it, quantify the effect but will quickly be thinking about how sales will rebound in the current year. Market is a forward looking beast, always has been and always will be.