OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[nevchev]

praying for a shocker....winner nn said .70?

Many recent predictions have been proven to be quite fanciful. Maybe there needs to be a dedicated thread for this

[Waltzing]

Mr B says possible 35M; if so a sell off and then recovery. If the speed of traffic in the central north island is anything to go by the population has recovered from the shock of global disturbances and so too will the share price of OCA. Speedily recover...

[value_investor]

I'm going to say between $45-49m. I think they'll do well to get to the same place as last year and I'd be very impressed if they do or even beat it. I'd be pleased if I'm proven wrong.

I'm more interested to see if they've made any progress on stemming the gradual decline on the care side of the business. I still see this as the short term pain point for the next 2-3 financial years until they can convert more growth to the higher end of the market.

[Maverick]

I'm going to say between $45-49m. I think they'll do well to get to the same place as last year and I'd be very impressed if they do or even beat it. I'd be pleased if I'm proven wrong.

I'm more interested to see if they've made any progress on stemming the gradual decline on the care side of the business. I still see this as the short term pain point for the next 2-3 financial years until they can convert more growth to the higher end of the market.

I think your going to very disappointed Value with the "care profits" if you are looking for a rise this year. I`m picking about 20m where last year was 24m. That's without the extra costs of Covid`s PPE and extra wages chucked in. Its likely to be REALLY bad if that's included too. (who knows how/where those costs will be included).
Putting Covid expenses aside the reason the "care profits" will appear bad is because they have to demolish units to rebuild them . That means turning paying customers away and still paying to retain care staff for several years.
Then there are 2 more handbrakes for the care profit. Firstly it takes 2-3 years to completely refill a new delivery (so a stack of inefficiencies during that time) and then on the first sale of each new care suit the "new build margin profit" is counted over in the "village profit" section of the accounts.
So I`m expecting this years "care "result to be circa $20m (down from 24m pcp) but the "care suit new sales margins" to be 14m (up from 5.8 pcp) so all up that a net gain of about $4m.
Again, all of these figures don`t include the inevitable and substantial covid costs.

I do expect this years care profits to be the bottom of the entire project/pipeline and will gradually firm up in next years result and beyond.

Anyway....ONE MORE SLEEP TO GO. ...ahhhh I can taste free beer already.

[Beagle]

Love a bit of positive talk on the eve of the announcement. Thought I'd take a selfie getting ready to head to the pub to buy Maverick his beer.
Just look how happy I will be if the underlying profit is over $50m https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...=50&ajaxhist=0

[winner69]

It doesn’t really matter what underlying profit is tomorrow ....whether it’s $35m or $50m or $70m it really is irrelevant in the big picture

This year just another step forward in their conversion program which will lead to immense value creation

Don’t forget the valuation is in the story ...not meaningless financial metrics,

Might get a 3 cent divie ... but that not really a good thing.

[trader_jackson]

It doesn’t really matter what underlying profit is tomorrow ....whether it’s $35m or $50m or $70m it really is irrelevant in the big picture

This year just another step forward in their conversion program which will lead to immense value creation

Don’t forget the valuation is in the story ...not meaningless financial metrics,

Might get a 3 cent divie ... but that not really a good thing.

Winner, you know tn this world the story is better than the bottom line....
Look at APT, ZEL and AIR... their bottom lines are all going to be absolutely horrid for the next few years at least, and they might have different stories, but the stories are all oh so very strong, and that's all that matters!

[bottomfeeder]

In this economic climate, its the long term potential to cope and be successful that is more important in setting value. While profit is always good, I'm not really concerned about the results or in fact the divvie.

[Beagle]

The word is out, $68.7m !!!!...who would have thought

[winner69]

I reckon $71m

Bit shy of $84m where Earl said it would be a couple of years — but at least an improvement on last year

They’ve got to break this habit of selling heaps more stuff and making stuff all more ....$71m will do that

So it’s going to be $69m

Thought I was about right a few weeks ago.

Pity it’s not Earl promised a couple of years ago ...hecseduced many with 35% pa growth talk.