OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Mel]

Have to agree and personally still paying the price with SML & ZEL........ BUT just MAYBE eventually the tide will turn

Haha, you're not alone - two shares that are a pain in my proverbial also!

[winner69]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/St...ust%202020.pdf

[Beagle]

Jetting up at amazing speed but the afterburner will soon be lit as well ! https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/resea...-asset-prices/

[Baa_Baa]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/St...ust%202020.pdf

Would you think all the retirement companies might need to revisit their property valuation downgrades post covid, some of which fecked their balance sheets and FY20 results?

I’d expect revised earnings and asset valuation outlooks in the not too distant future because they got those valuations wrong, big time wrong as it turns out.

This latent underlying valuation shift upwards is the coiled spring under all the retirement sector, not just OCA.

I expect, but to be honest also hope for, a significant rerate sector wide. When something as fundamental as assets values are misquoted, and it’s obvious now that they have been, then rectifying that changes everything.

I still think retirement Sector per se is one of the best hedge positions available now, but also the most under valued and under priced sectors on the market.

When it moves which I am sure it will, the move will be quite profound, and that’s upwards imo.

All of the sector will benefit from rectifying Property valuations to reflect reality albeit unexpected, OCA stands to benefit, it is so suppressed at present.

IMHO, normally this sector ambles along but recently their property valuation expectations have been proven wrong, big time wrong.

They need to reassess. They need to be more nimble and move more quickly with the market dynamic, and keep investors fully informed as things change, including constant and frequent assets valuations.

It might be a retirement company on face value but the business is really a property development company.

[Maverick]

House prices still rocketing up

In American lingo currently rising at 30% (annualised)

Cool eh

https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/St...ust%202020.pdf

Those stats are phenomenal Winner. HY1 (winter) sales are normallny low for OCA but those NZ sales figures are going to put a rocket under their results this year. The next HY result being reported next January can't be anything but outstanding with so many positives lining up for this period.

Makes me wonder if this is why the SUM share price is so high being the company with the most empty stock to benefit from this buying frenzy.

[winner69]

Those stats are phenomenal Winner. HY1 (winter) sales are normallny low for OCA but those NZ sales figures are going to put a rocket under their results this year. The next HY result being reported next January can't be anything but outstanding with so many positives lining up for this period.

Makes me wonder if this is why the SUM share price is so high being the company with the most empty stock to benefit from this buying frenzy.

Yep, looks like sector will have ‘outstanding’ results in next reporting periods .. esp as realised gains calculated from written down values

But insofar as share prices go OCA will again probably not do as well as the others.

Earl got to do a much better job telling the ‘story’ that is Oceania ...get a more excited like.

I have the feeling that guru analysts st / fund managers struggle to understand it ...that makes you wonder if there is a ‘story’ with substance.

[macduffy]

I wonder if these "rocketing" house prices are causing owners to put off selling and moving to a retirement village - except for those who need to move for health reasons - so that owners continue to capture the higher prices? The scarcity of listings would suggest that this might be one of the factors at play.

[BlackPeter]

I wonder if these "rocketing" house prices are causing owners to put off selling and moving to a retirement village - except for those who need to move for health reasons - so that owners continue to capture the higher prices? The scarcity of listings would suggest that this might be one of the factors at play.

NZ used to have a quite significant annual turnover of residents - many going oversees (and selling their houses) and many coming back (and buying houses).

These days there are ways more than normal coming back, but nobody wants to leave. Easy explanation for the limited housing supply?

[Beagle]

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...September+2020

If I remember correctly when OCA's properties were valued for the 31 May 2020 balance date by the valuers as at 30 April 2020 (yeah, go figure, right in the middle of lockdown) they discounted unsold stock by 27% instead of the usual 25%. IIRC that was worth 10 cps in earnings to OCA just by selling unsold stock.

I think the half year result to 30 November 2020 is going to be a real cracker. Should see see a dividend lift too.

As long as we can stay out of level 4 lockdown the runway ahead for OCA looks very promising.

[Bjauck]

…

I have the feeling that guru analysts st / fund managers struggle to understand it ...that makes you wonder if there is a ‘story’ with substance.

MET has been snared for what currently seems to be a song by a salesman with a foot in the door.

As hopefully the care side of the business now looks less risky, Will OCA be the Cinderella of the sector? Although I would hesitate to call the others ugly sisters.