OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[sb9]

Whats the Username & Password thing on the online meeting?

Not a holder here, but if its on Lumi, then your CSN no is username and your post code is password.

[Baa_Baa]

Not a holder here, but if its on Lumi, then your CSN no is username and your post code is password.

Thank you

[Mudfish]

"Despite the disruption to these sites as redevelopment took place, our aged care earnings are accordingly now at a point of “inflection” and will increase going forward as we continue to execute our strategy."

"sales activity and have recorded strong sales levels through June, July and August"

Didn't need to use the word 'strong'. Has been consistent with the use of 'point of inflection'. Without fully understanding the numbers, this compassionate needs based business is about to soar.

[Beagle]

Once the restrictions on sales eased in Alert Level Two, we recommenced sales activity and have
recorded strong sales levels through June, July and August – 26% higher than the same months last
year. We have seen particularly good levels of sales at both Meadowbank and The Sands over the last
few months. We have now sold 54 independent living apartments and 29 care suites at The Sands (with
a further 12 care suites occupied by residents paying a premium accommodation charge). At
Meadowbank, we have now sold 34 of the 64 independent living apartments in Stage Four and seven of
the 26 independent living apartments in Stage Five, as well as 38 care suites (with a further three care
suites occupied by residents paying a premium accommodation charge).
Many new residents who have submitted ORA applications since lockdown have commented to us about
how the lockdown period gave them an opportunity to reflect on their wellbeing and security, with the
benefits of retirement villages – including stronger communities, security and peace of mind - being more
prevalent over this period.

Just running my Beagle nose for a feed over this again...
I think its very important to note that these are the most expensive units within OCA's portfolio of properties and that the valuers have discounted values down a record 27% back In April because of what they expected would be a downturn, which as we all know has not eventuated, in fact we're in boom times.

Reading between the lines we're on for a really cracker year, what say you Maverick ? I think I might have to have another look at my forecasts for FY21...$57m underlying is looking quite conservative even for 10 months operations to 31 March 2020.

[RTM]

Market seems unimpressed so far.
I'm happy to continue to sit on my slightly over sized holding and enjoy the modest dividend.
My average is now 98.2. So doing better than the bank and a real chance of growing my capital over the next 2-4 years.
Off to the workshop now...look forward to your later commentary.

Cheers
RTM

[Beagle]

Only 10 units and 3 care suites left at the Sands. Maverick must be impressed with that. Interest rates headed to zero and this gives about 4.7% plus the strong prospect of capital growth in the value of the shares. Hmmm...have I got enough ?

[Baa_Baa]

2:50pm 'meeting closed' online, got kicked out and can't rejoin. Anyone else?

[Nigel]

My question seemed to have been overlooked. While acknowledging a longer-term strategy at play, I cheekily asked what they attribute the absence of share price appreciation to, when the rest of the industry has been performing so well. I noted that this was an area of frustration for some shareholders. As I wrote the question, OCA was at $1.03 (exactly where we were 12 months ago to the cent), meanwhile RYM (7%), ARV (15%), SUM (33.5) and MET (34%) have all made attractive gains in that same timeframe. I provided those numbers as a comparison. There was either a technical glitch that prevented them from receiving my question, or my question was 'moderated'. Maybe we're not meant to ask that sort of question, but it's a genuine concern for many of us, and I can't help but feel slightly ignored.

[winner69]

Jeez all super duper ....what possibly could go wrong?

[Beagle]

My question seemed to have been overlooked. While acknowledging a longer-term strategy at play, I cheekily asked what they attribute the absence of share price appreciation to, when the rest of the industry has been performing so well. I noted that this was an area of frustration for some shareholders. As I wrote the question, OCA was at $1.03 (exactly where we were 12 months ago to the cent), meanwhile RYM (7%), ARV (15%), SUM (33.5) and MET (34%) have all made attractive gains in that same timeframe. I provided those numbers as a comparison. There was either a technical glitch that prevented them from receiving my question, or my question was 'moderated'. Maybe we're not meant to ask that sort of question, but it's a genuine concern for many of us, and I can't help but feel slightly ignored.

That's the problem I find repeatedly with online meetings and hard questions which is why I have a strong dislike for them. They simply ignore the hard questions...in my experience all companies do this regardless of what they say otherwise. The truth is the market needs to see some evidence that their strategy is working.
I think the market is going to get a large dose of that evidence when they report their half year results in late January 2021 and the present share price is a real opportunity but may not do much until closer to the report date so that leads us to consider what other support might be forthcoming before then ?
Where are the funds going to go when the takeover of MET is settled in late October ?
What about the billions coming up on term deposit maturity where people are being offered 1% to reinvest ?

Wonder how long it will take Maverick to rework his model ? Why wait...I got the dog bone for being closest to the mark for FY20 underlying profit...so wait for it folks...drum roll please.... after applying my super sniffer long range food sensing nose to this I get underlying profit for the six months ended 30/11/20 of ~ $35m up 46% on the previous corresponding period and I am picking ~ $25m for the 4 months ended 31/03/21 for a ten month total of $60m (annualized $72m or 11.5 cps).

Even applying a no growth (because the market will still be a doubting Thomas), PE of 11.5 to this my target share price is thus 11.5 cps x 11.5 = $1.32 by mid 2021.
The risk to this with negative interest rates is to the upside in my opinion as the market starts to wake up.