OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

yea im a holder again major resistance breached so lets see how it goes , 1.10 next resistance then 1.20 not much in between based on price action

...and then back to 140 where it nearly got to before ...and this time macquaries won't ruin the party

[bull....]

$125m easy peasy - huge demand

Hope they put it to good use

yep the bigger the demand for the issue will reflect in some share price movement as a vote of confidence

[Waltzing]

the brilliant Mr B has done it again... and thanks to the man with the model who has been very generous in sharing his knowledge. We only have a very small holding this time and by the time we have funds to allocate again to this sector i actually think the train will have left the station.

[Beagle]

Maybe the drunk monkey's have sobered up

If so 115 here we come

...and then back to 140 where it nearly got to before ...and this time macquaries won't ruin the party

Yes the overhang is gone...thank you for the reminder...onwards and upwards

[Mudfish]

What's really exciting with this rise is, it's based on very solid company fundamentals. The SP movement is easily justified and we should at last see some steady upwards pressure looking forward. It's not pumped up by some random NZX movement or a bunch of Sharesies players. Maverick and Beagle are to be commended for sharing their understandings of how this company is evolving into a very solid growth company.

[winner69]

no Disc to NTA now

[Beagle]

... after applying my super sniffer long range food sensing nose to this I get underlying profit for the six months ended 30/11/20 of ~ $35m up 46% on the previous corresponding period and I am picking ~ $25m for the 4 months ended 31/03/21 for a ten month total of $60m (annualized $72m or 11.5 cps).

Even applying a no growth (because the market will still be a doubting Thomas), PE of 11.5 to this my target share price is thus 11.5 cps x 11.5 = $1.32 by mid 2021.
The risk to this with negative interest rates is to the upside in my opinion as the market starts to wake up.

From yesterday. I just want to add that I believe that is a very conservative price target and it won't surprise me in the slightest if we surpass that target well before mid 2021.
I am almost too scared to post what I really think its worth, (for fear some will call me a ramper) but the sector average PE is 18 and I think they can do 11.5 cents...I leave you good folks to do the maths. I don't see any compelling reason in the medium term why this should trade below the sector average PE.

In the due course of time when all the overseas based negative sentiment about Covid and rest homes passes we will see a substantial rerating in my opinion.

[Baa_Baa]

From yesterday. I just want to add that I believe that is a very conservative price target and it won't surprise me in the slightest if we surpass that target well before mid 2021.
I am almost too scared to post what I really think its worth, (for fear some will call me a ramper) but the sector average PE is 18 and I think they can do 11.5 cents...I leave you good folks to do the maths. I don't see any compelling reason in the medium term why this should trade below the sector average PE.

In the due course of time when all the overseas based negative sentiment about Covid and rest homes passes we will see a substantial rerating in my opinion.

Couldn't agree more. In the past when OCA SP moved up it kind of crept away, each day a few cents higher until you say whoa, wish I'd bought in earlier. Here's a classic depth chart showing the strong buyer support and a large spread of lower volume sells. You want them, you end up paying a lot more by mucking around.

Attachment 11968

[Beagle]

MET raised $100m in a debt issue at 3% in September 2019 and history shows their share price took off shortly afterwards. I know debt and equity are inextricably related but I found it curious that shortly after MET raised those funds the shares took off. Those bonds are currently trading on the NZDX secondary market at just 2.05%.

With OCA certain (in my opinion), to raise the full $125m at just on 2.0% one wonders if the shares will behave in a manner similar to MET and also take off soon ?

Why would they, how does one explain this ? I do not have any answers but only one theory.
In the process of doing a bond issue the company, its prospectus, (now known as a product disclosure statement) and its future prospects gets put in front of many powerful and influential investors and many of them ask why bother with a 2% bond return when I can get north of 5% dividend yield plus outstanding growth prospects ?

I think this theory of mine has genuine merit so I have believed my own creative B.S. and bought even more this morning

So far this theory which appears to have no factual basis is working. Is it a coincidence that the very day they announce a bond issue the shares break out of their recent trading range or might this theory have some validity ? Interestingly in the MET case the shares rebounded just on 20% in the weeks following their bond issue at about this time last year, (prior to the APVG first expressing interest). It will be fascinating to see if a similar sized rerating occurs with OCA shares.

[winner69]

Beagle ..they might even do a MET and announce a share buyback