OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

MET takeover a done deal now subject to final takeover panel clearance and high court approval of the scheme implementation agreement. Assuming those approvals are obtained which I think is pretty close to just being formalities I suspect a fair percentage of the takeover proceeds scheduled for late October will find their way back into other companies in the retirement sector including OCA.

Yes, sector should do well if punters stay in sector but probably more will go to RYM and SUM and even ARV than OCA seeing they are more loved by market.

[Beagle]

Yes, sector should do well if punters stay in sector but probably more will go to RYM and SUM and even ARV than OCA seeing they are more loved by market.

Yeah...NAH...the value will shine through...MET was a diamond in the rough....shareholders will be looking for something similar on similar compelling fundmental's.
A lot of that money will flow OCA's way in my opinion (not just words...backed by action, I bought even more today). Strong eps growth coming in the years ahead and dirt cheap already on covid adjusted fundamental's. TA looks great too !

You can't have too many My #1 investment position

[bull....]

im out now i had 1.20 as resistance and its overbrought on the daily at over 80 so good luck everyone. i brought on technicals only have stated on here im not big on the fundamentals of the company overall think sum others are better

[winner69]

Harbour Asset selling SUM ....probably seen the light of day and buying into the bargain that is OCA

They heard the cries of ‘you can’t have too many Oceania’ echoing around the market

[Beagle]

Harbour Asset selling SUM ....probably seen the light of day and buying into the bargain that is OCA

They heard the cries of ‘you can’t have too many Oceania’ echoing around the market

Pretty good judge of fair value are Harbour. I sold out at $9 earlier this year too and I reckon that's top dollar until they can prove they can sell HEAPS more per annum than they have been in recent years. One good quarters sales results that come out next week is not proof, they need to consistently sell higher numbers per annum and that's been the real Achilles heel of the company in recent years.

Difference between you and I bull is I believe in the fundamental's, the business model and the technical's also look good which confirms my thesis.

[Waltzing]

Stay down... down boy ... down... cries to no avail...sorry ... i remember reading the "Passionless people" only to find the younger generation around me speaking of their passions... shock ... has ZEALANDIA changed and now all the passionless people are to found in ? rest homes!!!

and my point is? nothing really good to be alive on a lovely spring day.. suffering from to much sun shine and some very nice property and retail stock values on the NZX.

[Beagle]

The truth is the market needs to see some evidence that their strategy is working.
I think the market is going to get a large dose of that evidence when they report their half year results in late January 2021 and the present share price is a real opportunity but may not do much until closer to the report date so that leads us to consider what other support might be forthcoming before then ?
Where are the funds going to go when the takeover of MET is settled in late October ?
What about the billions coming up on term deposit maturity where people are being offered 1% to reinvest ?

I got the dog bone for being closest to the mark for FY20 underlying profit...so wait for it folks...drum roll please.... after applying my super sniffer long range food sensing nose to this I get underlying profit for the six months ended 30/11/20 of ~ $35m up 46% on the previous corresponding period and I am picking ~ $25m for the 4 months ended 31/03/21 for a ten month total of $60m (annualized $72m or 11.5 cps).
Even applying a no growth (because the market will still be a doubting Thomas), PE of 11.5 to this my target share price is thus 11.5 cps x 11.5 = $1.32 by mid 2021.
The risk to this with negative interest rates is to the upside in my opinion as the market starts to wake up.

[FONT=Arial]So I'm expecting an underlying profit (annualised) of about 57-60m FY2021 PLUS this $6m one off. I just cannot see for the life of me how a huge jump in profit cannot happen (without another massive disruptive event). We know enough history and numbers now to just add it all up with very few assumptions left.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial]As far as the share price appreciation goes , I'm very surprised with so much mounting evidence of the model's success that this company hasn't been seriously rerated by now. I do concede one does still need to dig a little bit still to see it but surely analysts out there must have bothered by now. With 3 years of history behind it, in my view, it has now been substantially de risked. Pretty soon it will be so clear that a drunk monkey will see “the story”.[/FONT]

There were no surprises from the meeting and nor should there be. OCA has a clear plan and executes it in a very pragmatic way. It was basically all good news and I see it as only a short time now before the market finally agrees.

Maverick and his wingman Beagle dog do it again.
From Thursday last week when the share price was $1.05. Research out this week by a major broker picking a share price of $1.30 looked like half drunk monkey stuff to me but at least the drunk monkey's generally seem to be starting to sober up so I might have a beverage or two to celebrate.

[Waltzing]

"beverage or two to celebrate."

do we all want this stock to go up? do we? do we what.....

the smart money follows the smart money ... till its not..

[Beagle]

Long term story this one mate...the recent rerating of 14 cents in the last 6 trading days is just the first few drunk monkey's starting to sober up. Once Credit Suisse see the first half results in Jan 2021 they're going to have to update and upgrade their research dramatically. Could easily be over $1.30 well before then because its really worth $2.07 in my opinion...sometime in 2022 or most likely quite a bit earlier.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12369966

Dan Stratful, investment adviser with Forsyth Barr, said: "When the Metlifecare shareholders get their money back, a billion dollars of it, you generally find they will rotate it back into the retirement sector. And that sector is being helped at the moment by a buoyant housing market, with the September figures looking so good."

[Waltzing]

"Could easily be over $1.30 well before then because its really worth $2.07 in my opinion...sometime in 2022 or most likely quite a bit earlier."

well... we might buy a little more next week... just a little more... temping.. temping... i was a bit concerned about being stuck in this little paradise till 2022... not so much now.. not so much... perfect spring day..i do wish holders the very best on this one. Oh that us too... im not following the blood hound on every stock... its coincidence ...

down futures recovering.. pity..

well i hear a voice calling me to dinner...