OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Old mate]

What are the thoughts on getting to 1.40 next week? Or are we going to pause at 1.30 for a while?

[Waltzing]

TA on ATM showed a possible step down unless FA showed some upward trends which could still happen. OCA TA showed a solid base and you can continue to whatch and invest in for a long time to come if the FA shows an incremental trend up and they start to pay dividends from cash flow. If there model works then you could still buy in under 1.50 or more and hold for 5 to 10 years.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PUTOHONKQ6AFU/ Paywalled article about St Heliers OCA development site from the Herald last weekend.

I was out St Heliers way today so stopped by to see the Waimarie site. Earthworks are well and truly underway and security fencing was up so nosy dogs could not get a sneak peak other than from the road. Its about 1 Km to the east of the main St Heliers café and shops area, mostly a flat easy walk or drive by motorised cart. From the road I looked to the northwest and the views of the Waitemata harbor and cityscape are breathtaking.

It will be a breathtaking development with stunning panoramic views of the city, inner harbour and the Hauraki gulf. A nice park in front of it means those views will be unimpeded in the future and there's even a nice area for off the leash walking of one's dog. St Heliers, (for those that don't know Auckland) is one of the oldest most established eastern suburbs full of very upmarket homes. I am sure this development will meet strong demand from locals of the right age. Two other cars with older folks stopped to look just in the few minutes we were there. Mrs B also thought it was a stunning site.

I'll leave the really short term share price movement thing to others if you don't mind Old mate as I'm in for the long run. Very short term share price predictions are a crapshoot, might as well toss a coin. That said, over the next few months there will be a huge amount of money coming out of term deposits so it wouldn't surprise me to see this somewhere around $1.50, (possibly even higher), before the interim report in late January 2021. Once that report comes out and the analysts and professional investors do their revised calculations, that's when the fun will really start....but who knows, often momentum creates momentum and it could be $2 by Christmas. Time will tell.

Fundamentally, I still think its very, very cheap at $1.30...by my own estimates only on a forward PE of 11, (which is a no growth PE in this market) which makes no sense whatsoever for a company that's reached the point of inflection and about to start on years of solid growth. The sector average PE is 18 and I think this is where OCA will rerate too, over time. Over what period of time I do not know and that will depend upon OCA garnering the respect and trust of the investment community as a growth company. This respect and trust needs to be earned and is never given freely. The future is very promising but like all things about the future, time will tell.

P.S. I note this development creates 76 independent living apartments and just 31 care suites, (a very high proportion of independent living units for an OCA development). Its quite probably well worth noting for the potential of how good this development could be for shareholders that the upmarket luxury apartment market in Auckland is white hot at present. https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/38510

[Baa_Baa]

Quick update on the chart, weekly log scale, 17MA & 43MA (approximates 50/200 day MA's) golden cross follow through nicely with a big bolt up from low $1 range. Solid close on weekly high SP speaks to strong demand. RSI toppy but can absorb more upside. Resistance above including ATH could slow things down a bit, leading to some consolidation around the mid/high $1.30. That said, a breakout and close above ATH $1.39 could see a run up into blue sky (ref SUM chart this week). Possible channel forming, upper line currently at ~$1.60, lower $1.15.

GLTAH

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...Z7MUGF4RKAQQE/
Cindy is absolutely adamant no wealth tax is coming and no new taxes in her second term apart from the 39 % rate for people making over $180K so I think we can all relax about tax issues. Need to get some growth back into the economy so the way I see it interest rates are going even lower and are likely to stay at ultra low level's for the foreseeable future so that's very supportive of the underlying fundamental's in this sector. The 2020's, a rich golden decade of prosperity for the retirement sector ?

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...Z7MUGF4RKAQQE/
Cindy is absolutely adamant no wealth tax is coming and no new taxes in her second term apart from the 39 % rate for people making over $180K so I think we can all relax about tax issues. Need to get some growth back into the economy so the way I see it interest rates are going even lower and are likely to stay at ultra low level's for the foreseeable future so that's very supportive of the underlying fundamental's in this sector. The 2020's, a rich golden decade of prosperity for the retirement sector ?

Just as well we have Ardern on our side

Hope she has a clear cut victory next week.

PS ..might need to take time out to coach the ABs

[Blue Skies]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...Z7MUGF4RKAQQE/
Cindy is absolutely adamant no wealth tax is coming and no new taxes in her second term apart from the 39 % rate for people making over $180K so I think we can all relax about tax issues. Need to get some growth back into the economy so the way I see it interest rates are going even lower and are likely to stay at ultra low level's for the foreseeable future so that's very supportive of the underlying fundamental's in this sector. The 2020's, a rich golden decade of prosperity for the retirement sector ?

Ahhhm, didn't I get a bit of pointed criticism for mentioning this (with relevance to OCA) here on Friday ?
With someone, can't remember who, started a new thread!

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...Z7MUGF4RKAQQE/
Cindy is absolutely adamant no wealth tax is coming and no new taxes in her second term apart from the 39 % rate for people making over $180K so I think we can all relax about tax issues. Need to get some growth back into the economy so the way I see it interest rates are going even lower and are likely to stay at ultra low level's for the foreseeable future so that's very supportive of the underlying fundamental's in this sector. The 2020's, a rich golden decade of prosperity for the retirement sector ?

Certainly the golden age for real estate investors looks like it will continue - covid level one (while Europe and the USA spikes), low interest rates, no stamp duties, no CGT.

When travel restrictions ease further, will returning kiwis and safe haven seekers flood into Aotearoa demanding a little patch of land to call haven? Has the property investment environment been sweeter?

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PUTOHONKQ6AFU/ Paywalled article about St Heliers OCA development site from the Herald last weekend.

I was out St Heliers way today so stopped by to see the Waimarie site. Earthworks are well and truly underway and security fencing was up so nosy dogs could not get a sneak peak other than from the road. Its about 1 Km to the east of the main St Heliers café and shops area, mostly a flat easy walk or drive by motorised cart. From the road I looked to the northwest and the views of the Waitemata harbor and cityscape are breathtaking. ...

Definitely a golden circle location in a top suburb. Still cannot believe they got planning permission. I used to occasionally jog along the waterfront as a student and had my snack and drink at Cliff Road/Glover Park. A nice little shopping area at St Heliers, it used have that coastal village vibe.

A Jewel of a spot and probably the units will be out of my price range when I become eligible to live there. I will press my nose against the fence and have whine from outside sometime too!

[RTM]

Definitely a golden circle location in a top suburb. Still cannot believe they got planning permission. I used to occasionally jog along the waterfront as a student and had my snack and drink at Cliff Road/Glover Park. A nice little shopping area at St Heliers, it used have that coastal village vibe.

A Jewel of a spot and probably the units will be out of my price range when I become eligible to live there. I will press my nose against the fence and have whine from outside sometime too!

Not to mention Ladies Bay down the stair case......