At 1.29, OCA premium to FY20 NTA is 35%, still lowest of the five retirement stocks. RYM 227%, MET 74%, SUM 97%, ARV 41%.
Not bad, especially given quality of management and strategy, development pipeline and shift towards profitability all contributing towards possible inflection point for OCA as indicated by Maverick / Beagle and others previously. Not to mention macro support from RBNZ fuelling property market and possible redistribution of MET funds within sector, plus longer term tailwinds from demographic changes.
Also of note for me is that yield from OCA is historically a sustainable once, with net operating cashflow comfortably covering dividends (FY20 being $0.04 dividend, and $0.08 OCF / share). Good management of capital, and balancing of return vs re-investment, in my books.
Long story short, $1.29 could look very cheap in medium - long term
Welcome to the forum wagwan.
Excellent first/second post. No matter what aspect one looks at this fundamentally it just comes out a superb company. The real concern to me WAS that its cost of redevelopments was always going to eat away into any achieved gains. While I have proven to myself that the future rewards are significant and worthwhile. My own calculations say we have past the point of inflection.
By this I mean the care side of the business which has been diminishing away by circa $5m (ish) compounding each year from the overall bottom line . However the next HY report will demonstrate the care side will actually increase in profit for the first time. So the net affect of the increasing village profit (which has been rising nicely but masked by the falling care profit )will now appear in conjunction with the improving care profit as a terrific combo underlying profit quite out of the blue to most. The 2 income sections are now effectively working together for the first time since listing.
This has been very difficult to calculate and I really don't believe the investment community and analysts have their head around this yet. However , if I'm right , it will be late Jan 2021 that the evidence of the turn around will be laid bare for all to see.
As Beagle has said earlier, that's when things get really interesting. I consider the recent SP rise little more than the rising tide lifting all boats.
looking forward to your future contributions to this thread wagwan.
While age is certainly relevant, it is probably not the critical factor here. Those in care units are there primarily because of their health related additional needs. Which will, in many cases, contribute to the higher churn rate.
Originally Posted by wagwan
Larger portion of OCA suites being care-based, by nature higher churning and generally speaking older occupants
Welcome to the forum wagwan.
Excellent first/second post. No matter what aspect one looks at this fundamentally it just comes out a superb company. The real concern to me WAS that its cost of redevelopments was always going to eat away into any achieved gains. While I have proven to myself that the future rewards are significant and worthwhile. My own calculations say we have past the point of inflection.
By this I mean the care side of the business which has been diminishing away by circa $5m (ish) compounding each year from the overall bottom line . However the next HY report will demonstrate the care side will actually increase in profit for the first time. So the net affect of the increasing village profit (which has been rising nicely but masked by the falling care profit )will now appear in conjunction with the improving care profit as a terrific combo underlying profit quite out of the blue to most. The 2 income sections are now effectively working together for the first time since listing.
This has been very difficult to calculate and I really don't believe the investment community and analysts have their head around this yet. However , if I'm right , it will be late Jan 2021 that the evidence of the turn around will be laid bare for all to see.
As Beagle has said earlier, that's when things get really interesting. I consider the recent SP rise little more than the rising tide lifting all boats.
looking forward to your future contributions to this thread wagwan.
Thanks Mav - appreciated. Re bold - let's hope so!
Cherry on top re premium to NTA is that using the FY20 numbers almost certainly underestimates NTA, as previously outlined by others, with CBRE using (2%) - 3% range for Property Growth rate. Evidently overestimates the premium, which is likely a lot close to 10% than 30%.
Change of Balance Date complicates things for a company at reporting time.
Results in a reporting period that is not 12 months but most companies that change usually produce a proforma set of accounts to reflect 12 month periods. Like Oceania will report theie 10 month statutory result but could produce a 12 month result for April 20 to March 21 and compare it to a April 19 to March 20 proforma result.
Difficult for Oceania as 12 months to March 21 will be probably be less than the 10 months they will report on - didn't make any money in April and May I'm led to believe
But doing it that way 2022 (both H1 and H2) will be a real boomer
Let's see how they handle it
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Change of Balance Date complicates things for a company at reporting time.
Results in a reporting period that is not 12 months but most companies that change usually produce a proforma set of accounts to reflect 12 month periods. Like Oceania will report theie 10 month statutory result but could produce a 12 month result for April 20 to March 21 and compare it to a April 19 to March 20 proforma result.
Difficult for Oceania as 12 months to March 21 will be probably be less than the 10 months they will report on - didn't make any money in April and May I'm led to believe
But doing it that way 2022 (both H1 and H2) will be a real boomer
Let's see how they handle it
It does present a problem how they pitch the short year results, but it doesn’t matter as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway 😊 As long as they’ve built heaps, sold heaps, churned the base, Confirmed the inflection, etc, it’ll be all good, very very good probably.
It does present a problem how they pitch the short year results, but it doesn’t matter as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway 😊 As long as they’ve built heaps, sold heaps, churned the base, Confirmed the inflection, etc, it’ll be all good, very very good probably.
And if multiple everything by 12/10 it will be extraordinary
Caution though ...both beagle and mav full year forecasts for 2020 weren’t that good ...not even in the margin of error.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
And if multiple everything by 12/10 it will be extraordinary
Caution though ...both beagle and mav full year forecasts for 2020 weren’t that good ...not even in the margin of error.
Bit harsh there Winner.
As I recall Beagle was pretty darn close. I was out by quite a bit but have explained on the forum the reason due my incorrect covid sales assumption just after the fy2020 report.
For any new guys here , that post is worth reading as that incorrect assumption of mine for 2020 due to covid unit sales has a material and positive effect on the next HY.
Anybody serious enough should spend an hour and look up REINZ stats to see the proof of what I meant in that post. ( while you are doing that you will also get an understanding of how significant the most recent REINZ months of sales of increased auckland volumes are going to be next HY1- you can see the significant effect rippling through the latest SUM sales as clear as day)
Bit harsh there Winner.
As I recall Beagle was pretty darn close. I was out by quite a bit but have explained on the forum the reason due my incorrect covid sales assumption just after the fy2020 report.
For any new guys here , that post is worth reading as that incorrect assumption of mine for 2020 due to covid unit sales has a material and positive effect on the next HY.
Anybody serious enough should look up REINZ stats to see the proof of what I meant in that post. ( while you are doing that you will also get an understanding of how significant the most recent REINZ months of sales of increased auckland volumes are going to be next HY1- you can see the effect rippling through the latest SUM sales as clear as day)
Are you just stirring Winner?
Sorry to have offended you both
I think post 6178 is your review of the result. All should have another look
Whatever happens in 2021 looks like it’s going to be again short of the $86m underlying that Earl told me they were aiming for in F20
Shareprice going well eh ..I’m glad I got some more a little while back.
Last edited by winner69; 14-10-2020 at 08:30 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Originally Posted by wagwan
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