OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

If I recall correctly some dog got the FY20 result almost right bang on the money @ underlying profit of $45m ...probably just a fluke but then again maybe the tea leaves were sniffed very carefully.
Rumor has it that same dog has forecasted FY21 underlying profit at $60m for the 10 months a little while back but recent very strong real estate prices and volumes have the dog sniffing the breeze thinking about an upgrade. Watch this space.
Winder what the relativity chart compared to SUM looks like ?

I added a few more today. What's the point of having cash in a call account earning nothing ?

[Snow Leopard]

....as only Beagle and Maverick understand the financials anyway....

There is a least one error in that statement above---

....For example John and Jenny buy a lovely unit at say Ellerslie for say $650K. Nine years later when they pass away their estate gets back about $450K after deductions but the unit is resold for $1,450K with nine years compound capital growth in value and the company makes $1m tax free on resale which is obviously vastly more than the 25% development margin when the $650K unit was first sold = $162K which was taxable....

---and there is at least two errors in the above.

[Beagle]

Its intended as a general overview of the business model.

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth saying this is a $1.65 share... more room to run they say

[Greekwatchdog]

They have upgraded OCA to Out Perform ,SUM Out Perform, RYM Neutral and ARV Downgraded to Neutral.

[Greekwatchdog]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional careoperator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA toalmost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. ShouldOCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

[winner69]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional careoperator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA toalmost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. ShouldOCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

Wished they hadn’t used ‘high risk’ so many times

[Beagle]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65 (from NZ$1.10). We believe OCA's higheraverage charges and focus on care suites over traditional care is a key beneficiary of the current buoyant market environment forresidential homes and high demand for care. We believe OCA to be at an inflection point with its transition from traditional care operator towards a premium operator charging through deferred management fees (DMF) and re-sale gains. We expect OCA to almost double annuity earnings over the coming three years and deliver the highest cash recovery of new capex in the sector. Should OCA deliver on our expectations and the buoyant market continue, we see substantial further upside medium term.The worst is behind us, time to look aheadOCA has had, by some margin, the worst development of all the aged care operators over the last four years; annuity earnings havedeclined by almost 30% and only 50% of capex has been recovered in the form of new sales. This has been a deliberate strategy byOCA to de-commission one third of its existing care beds to replace them with (fewer) care suites and ILUs. This has, in our view, beena high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cashconversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "usecase" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, inour view, a high risk, high reward stock.

If anyone could please PM me and I will give you my email to send this research through to me that would be much appreciated.
Hey Maverick, it looks like the drunk monkey's are starting to sober / wake up
P.S. Thank you folks for so many kind offers to share information, I have it now and will review and comment ASAP.

[Beagle]

In a nutshell Forsyth Barr have underlying eps as follows
FY21 8.0 cps
FY22 9.7 cps
FY23 11.2 cps.

They use these assumptions to arrive at a target price of $1.65.

I see their figures as being extremely conservative and I think the analysts will be scrambling to publish significant upgrades once OCA report their half year results to 30/11/20 in late January 2021.

[Waltzing]

share on fire!!! comparatively speaking!!! thank goodness we bought a few more shares the other day. I think a few commentators might be moving the market very very early!

DISC: run multiple private portfolios in holdings ltds and trusts.