OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Bjauck]

share on fire!!! comparatively speaking!!! thank goodness we bought a few more shares the other day. I think a few commentators might be moving the market very very early!

DISC: run multiple private portfolios in holdings ltds and trusts.

In a professional capacity?

[Waltzing]

If i was working for a commercial fund or government fund i would disclose.

Private only the same as all retail investors here. If we move to provide any commercial services from technologies we may have investments in i would disclose it.

I do have access to technologies for private use that are industrial in nature as a private investor in those technologies but they are not technologies that are list in any public traded companies. They are held by private investors and are not technologies the public can invest in.

Here i am a private retail investor who portfolios are like others here who are directors and trustees.

Similar to Mr Percy and others who are also trustees.

Many of you will be in similar positions im sure.

The only difference being we have a large amount of software in use that would be similar in nature to larger commercial operations and major technology firms.

I would disclose if i was a professional manager of public funds. No we are not.

[wagwan]

Brief Notes - We upgrade Oceania Healthcare (OCA) to OUTPERFORM with a target price of NZ$1.65... This has, in our view, been a high risk, high reward, strategy that looks to be paying off. The care suite model substantially improves capex recovery, cash conversion of annuity earnings and DMF. The risk primarily relates to demand; will the product work? We are of the view that the "use case" for care suites is strong, however, it is a relatively untested product in New Zealand. The early signs are positive, but OCA is, in our view, a high risk, high reward stock.

Research and commentary from Europe would suggest demand for care suites shouldn't be on the list of things keeping OCA holders awake at night:

ING Report on Elderly Care and Housing Demand in the EU, see images attached

Attachment 12018INg P6.jpg

Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/98665438-...9-e38c177b152f

Sebastian O’Kelly, director of the campaign group Better Retirement Housing, says the historic approach to retirement housing is broken — a model he characterises as “granny flats built by volume housebuilders, sold at a premium in blocks with limited parking, leases loaded with revenue streams and the freehold sold to speculators.”Instead, retirement community operators are looking at the sector in a different way, he says. “They build sites. They manage them. They provide complex services — communal areas, restaurant, gym, maybe a pool, and care provision. This is the sector exciting serious investment from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Blackstone.”


Overlay all that with the fact that soon to be residents across the country are currently watching the value of their properties go through the roof. Psychologically that's important, as it feeds people's perception of their personal wealth, and by extension their willingness to spend.

Those luxury OCA suites and care units now look pretty inviting...

[Waltzing]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

[Beagle]

With the average value of a house in Auckland now knocking on $1m, the relative affordability of OCA's apartments and care suites is another factor to be remembered.
For example here's a nice new apartment in a good area for $580K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property...9?bof=P0T8fbZ8
Fixed weekly fees for life and no more maintenance and lawns to mow...what's not to like !

[Beagle]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

Maybe some of the analysts are watching what certain posters have to say

[winner69]

even if the big posters here have not moved the market there comments have come at a time when property is taking off far faster than anyone could have predicted with any certainty a few months ago.

Funny things is every time MR B posts a great set of numbers followed by MR M the market has gone up!!!!

Could they be the biggest influences on this stock at the moment!!!!

t_j’s mates at Forbar also pretty good at moving markets ....maybe loading their clients accounts up before it’s too late.

[winner69]

Maybe some of the analysts are watching what certain posters have to say

Didn’t listen very well ....their forecasts are still very conservative aren’t they.

[Beagle]

Didn’t listen very well ....their forecasts are still very conservative aren’t they.

VERY conservative. Watch for Forsyth Barr to do another 55 cent upgrade to its price target after the interim results.

[Greekwatchdog]

So CS's will be up for a big upgrade based on their info..