OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Hope the shareprice doesn’t fly as high as Icarus did

Good point .... SP does look a bit frothy at current, doesn't it?

[winner69]

Ben Graham was a guru

Times like this remind of his sage wisdom

“In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

Think it means don’t overthink it ...just keep on buying OCA

[James108]

I’ve long thought that sum and oca were undervalued when compared to ryman. I wonder if the market finally agrees with me or if this is an aberration.

[winner69]

LOL...no I think he's sobered up already and come good.

Index change regarding a takeover usually involves also a rebalance as the size of the company going out is quite different to the size of the company coming into the NZX50. (Recall what happened in mid December 2017 when XRO came out of the index...massive buying of a wide range of other securities, not just the company replacing it in the index).

Will we see something similar next week with MET coming out which could see significant funds reinvested into other stocks in this sector including OCA late next Tuesday afternoon ? Keep an eye on the share price action in the last fifteen minutes of trade on Tuesday next week, it could be quite "interesting".

$1.50 next week ? Maybe,...watch this space !

If I keep guessing this index change influence thing enough times eventually I might be right lol

Jeez what will happen if NZ Superfund put half their MET cash in to OCA

Probably won’t happen because OCA trading at more than NTA and as such not good valued ...or way over valued for them

[Beagle]

A reminder, I am forecasting eps of 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised eps of 12 cps) This is much higher than Forsyth Barr is forecasting at 8 cps.
The sector average PE is 18. 12 cps x 18 = $2.16 is where I see fair value.

We will see who is right when they report their FY21 results in late May 2021. I was very close with my estimate of FY20 earnings. I feel I know the company very well now.

[Cyclical]

This one posted on the 29th of September:

Out of interest, I looked back on my spreadsheet to the 21st of May and see that on that day I sold all of may SUM @ $6.12 and loaded up with OCA @ .78.

Roll forward 4 and a bit months (where did that time go??) and at time of writing we have:

SUM $8.95 (46% gain)
OCA $1.11 (42% gain)

Not a hell of a lot in it and if we look at today's high for both, it would probably be even Stevens. Pretty handy results for both, no matter which way you look at it.

Roll forward 2 and half weeks and how things have changed. While both have made excellent gains in that time, OCA is neck and shoulders ahead:

SUM $10.30 (68% gain since 21/5)
OCA $1.45 (86% gain since 21/5)

I haven't looked at the others in the sector, but any concerns that OCA was being a bit short changed compared to SUM others look to have been addressed, and some. I like the company, believe in the story and have the portfolio heavily weighted in their favour, but just hope we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves. On the one hand I don't think it's a screaming buy anymore, but on the other, the analysts are starting to take notice and there's this "wall of money" from TD's looking for yield.

Blue sky out...hope it lasts the weekend

[bottomfeeder]

Sold a half of my holding today. Hard to believe that market cap has doubled in last six months. Is it really worth one billion more. Anyway I thought MET was kind to me, OCA is amazing. Can you imagine where MET would be nowif we werent "forced" out.

[Manukatana]

What a bull run..

[winner69]

A reminder, I am forecasting eps of 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised eps of 12 cps) This is much higher than Forsyth Barr is forecasting at 8 cps.
The sector average PE is 18. 12 cps x 18 = $2.16 is where I see fair value.

We will see who is right when they report their FY21 results in late May 2021. I was very close with my estimate of FY20 earnings. I feel I know the company very well now.

So in the 140's is still so so cheap

Forbar target out of date next week?

[Cyclical]

Can you imagine where MET would be nowif we werent "forced" out.

You'd hope the directors are looking at this and thinking they were royally shafted.