OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[justakiwi]

Maybe “at meal times” would be a better use of words here. Just a suggestion.

Agree with that.Im not blaming staff or anyone really atp.Dont want to stress out already stressed workers but need a solution, improvement for our family member. We are going there re 5 times a week atm at feed times.We are doing more investigation and thanks for your thoughts Justakiwi.We have a meeting with a staff member soon. One consideration is looking at another care company operations (a listed one), ive had some good feedback about their operations, systems etc.

[Joshuatree]

I wish but its a bit of both unfort.

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate and true believer in Ben Graham

If you really believed Ben's formula then OCA Intrinsic value is $5.15

Based on current EPS of 7 cents (and that's not the covid look through of 8 cents / EPS growth of a miserable 10% taken from the numbers you posted from Forbar report with me extrapolating out for 7 years with modest growth from 2023 / and used SUM bond rate 1.7% as current bond yields (jeez if I used govt rate the number is so high its ridiculous) and using Ben's revised formula V = EPS x (8.5+2g) x 4.4 / Y (Bond rate)

If I used 0.55% as 10 Year Govt Bond rate the Intrinsic Value is over $16



Pretty cool eh ....but Ben did say in The Intelligent Investor that his formula was pretty crap.

[justakiwi]

Yes I do understand that sometimes caregivers need to actively spoon feed residents who have very high care needs. But the language we use goes a long way to showing respect and humanity. The caregivers or family members who are actively spoon feeding your family member, are “supporting him/her at meal times” not “helping with feeding time.”

We are caring for human beings, not animals. Just saying

I wish but its a bit of both unfort.

[Waltzing]

but in Mr Grahams day money was almost still real stuff....1 ment 1 , negative was minus and positive was electrifying..... just saying....hit 1.48 before someone came on and popped the party...balloon.

[bottomfeeder]

Beagle me old mate and true believer in Ben Graham

If you really believed Ben's formula then OCA Intrinsic value is $5.15

Based on current EPS of 7 cents (and that's not the covid look through of 8 cents / EPS growth of a miserable 10% taken from the numbers you posted from Forbar report with me extrapolating out for 7 years with modest growth from 2023 / and used SUM bond rate 1.7% as current bond yields (jeez if I used govt rate the number is so high its ridiculous) and using Ben's revised formula V = EPS x (8.5+2g) x 4.4 / Y (Bond rate)

If I used 0.55% as 10 Year Govt Bond rate the Intrinsic Value is over $16



Pretty cool eh ....but Ben did say in The Intelligent Investor that his formula was pretty crap.

The value of the shares is continually dependent on the low interest rate environment remaining. Will interest rates remain low if inflation starts to increase above the Reserve Bank mandate. Also can banks hold these low interest rate yields on deposits, taking into account the risks of lending, and also the depositors taking out their Term Deposits and either buying shares, houses, beach houses, boats, and cars. Sooner or later the rubber band will break and interest rates will start to rise. When will this happen? that is the multibillion dollar question.

[Waltzing]

which means? look for them to do another bond issue next year? Lock in the low interest rates and increase the conversion rate?

has any stock actually on the NZX performed to the BG formula? and does intrinsic value ever ever get a lookin on actual share prices paid.

it could take at least 3 years before the market starts to absorb demand with a revamp of the RMA.

prices in the upper central north island may well decouple from the south island.

ARV PE is starting to move high up there for growth?

SUM P/E up there!

RYM P/E up there!

well those are big P/E's

[Beagle]

Ultra low interest rates for the foreseeable future, possibly the rest of this decade is how I see it.

Winner, what's the market average PE ? Apply that to OCA and what do you get ?
What's the much slower growing RYM PE, (answer historical PE is 30.6) apply that to OCA and you get $3.67

I suspect both answers start with three dollars something. Couldn't happen, surely not ?...or in a few years could it ?

Heck, even SUM is on a forward PE of over 20 now. 20 x 12 = $2.40 and I reckon OCA's growth prospects are at least as good as SUM's.

[Waltzing]

"most of the last 6 months have gone against my expectations."

yes we agree but we decided to move into defensive early and then move into the market in july and its been up up and away ever since!

No SP sell off last night when it should have run for the hills... this market is just not doing what it supposed to and we have been rewarded. If you stayed away ...

wonderful retreat today...

[winner69]

Hope we finish up for the day

Otherwise I'll be reading in market commentary 'OCA saw profit taking after a strong run up to record highs'

OMG - I could be a market commentator / journo and make a living writing crap things that punters love to read