OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

I think some small investors could have read the RYM report and got a bit worried. It should be noted that RYM's report this morning includes the crucial period of lockdown and its worst effects of it in April and May as well obviously June to September.

April and May 2020 and its effects are behind OCA because they last reported for the year ended 31 May 2020 which included those awful months where they ostensibly made no money.

Further RYM is heavily exposed to Melbourne which has obviously caused them serious problems for the last 6 months.

Finally RYM quote a figure of $50m for Covid preparation costs. Their market capitalization is nine times OCA and they have endured issues throughout the last 6 months in Melbourne.

From memory OCA incurred about $6m in direct Covid costs already reported in the last financial year covering the crucial period of March, April and May 2020.

[Mudfish]

Cheers Beagle, totally makes sense. ARV result next week should help with the bigger picture also. Their result will include lock-down period also but remove the Aussie factor.

[winner69]

The table of assumptions CBRE are using re property prices in Ryman report is interesting

In March they said Akl prices down 1.5% in Yr1

At September assumption is +0.1%

[winner69]

Ryman not paying back wage subsidy lets OCA off the hook without the nee to debate

About Ryman

Chairman David Kerr said the board had “quite a lengthy discussion” about whether to pay a dividend after taking the wage subsidy.

The wage subsidy scheme was “a great initiative” by the Government, that meant Ryman could continue to employ all its staff, and take on new staff, he said.

Ryman’s board believed that because the company had spent about three times the wage subsidy on Covid-19 measures, it “balanced out” and was appropriate to pay a dividend, he said.

“The board decided that was the right call to make,” Kerr said.

[wagwan]

I think some small investors could have read the RYM report and got a bit worried. It should be noted that RYM's report this morning includes the crucial period of lockdown and its worst effects of it in April and May as well obviously June to September.

April and May 2020 and its effects are behind OCA because they last reported for the year ended 31 May 2020 which included those awful months where they ostensibly made no money.

Further RYM is heavily exposed to Melbourne which has obviously caused them serious problems for the last 6 months.

Finally RYM quote a figure of $50m for Covid preparation costs. Their market capitalization is nine times OCA and they have endured issues throughout the last 6 months in Melbourne.

From memory OCA incurred about $6m in direct Covid costs already reported in the last financial year covering the crucial period of March, April and May 2020.

Completely agree. RYM FY21 reporting includes full impact of COVID, while OCA's won't as captured in May '20 reporting.

Given RYM result includes full COVID impact, and exposure to Melbourne, the result is encouraging for the entire sector - especially those (ie: OCA) reporting in a post-lockdown scenario.

Big upside on the cards for OCA in H1 FY21 reporting in Jan... although vaccine news worth keeping an eye on between now and then, as RBNZ can't get much more bullish. In last ~1 month, wholesale interest rate markets have moved from pricing in May 2021 OCR at -15 to -20bpts to now +2btps.

If vaccine comes sooner than expected, economic recovery accelerates, job losses, business failures etc don't eventuate suddenly RBNZ needs to consider where they go with wholesale rates. Even a small uplift in cost of wholesale funding, earlier than expected, could have a big impact on housing market, and by extension retirement sector.

That said, with household, corporate and govt debt ballooning, surely they can't dial back up too fast.

Strange times

[Beagle]

I need to have a word to Earl about presenting a brighter image in their annual report and marketing material. Must have more happy looking couples and their dogs. Only one dog in the FY20 annual report and he was a sad looking guide dog for a very old lady on her own. Three biggest fears I reckon for people moving into a retirement village are, am I going to be lonely or feel like an abandoned and lonely old person ?, (promote the camaraderie of the village and that you can bring your pet), am I going to be looked after ? (promote the care standard) and can I afford to live there ?, (heavily promote the fixed fees for life).

You want to be happy and have lots of friends in a retirement village ?, bring a dog with you when you move in. U.K. research shows people are 41 times more likely to stop and talk to you while out walking if you have a dog with you. They're a real ice breaker I tell ya ! Now there's an idea, I could call my next dog Ice Breaker, that's a real conversation starter right there lol

Hands up who would like me to try and get Earl to host an investor day next year with a site visit to the Sands ? Get some analysts and institutional investors along too.

[Bjauck]

...
You want to be happy and have lots of friends in a retirement village ?, bring a dog with you when you move in. U.K. research shows people are 41 times more likely to stop and talk to you while out walking if you have a dog with you. They're a real ice breaker I tell ya ! Now there's an idea, I could call my next dog Ice Breaker, that's a real conversation starter right there lol

Hands up who would like me to try and get Earl to host an investor day next year with a site visit to the Sands ? Get some analysts and institutional investors along too.

This is a great Friday afternoon post! I am surprised about the dog research. If I see a dog and owner I just pick up my pace and wonder if the dog will make a bee-line for my crotch. This could either be to sniff it or in the case of a pit bull or Staffordshire etc to bite it!

However an old lady and her friendly schnauzer may get a different reaction.

[Beagle]

Unsurprisingly people with small cute non threatening dogs get talked to a lot more than those with aggressive looking Alsatians !

Shares are looking a bit abandoned today. My Mum is on her last legs with her cancer and soon I will be an abandoned baby, hope the shares aren't.

[Waltzing]

well Bull will make killing... the price will rebuild but probably from a base around 1.20 ... ARV did not get sold off. Not sure its related to RYM more like there are more people trading this stock then it first appears..

thoughts are with MR B.

[YoungBull]

Unsurprisingly people with small cute non threatening dogs get talked to a lot more than those with aggressive looking Alsatians !

Shares are looking a bit abandoned today. My Mum is on her last legs with her cancer and soon I will be an abandoned baby, hope the shares aren't.

Really sorry to hear this Beagle, hope you’re dealing well and sharing some special moments. Appreciate all your insights.