OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[nztx]

Proposal to make retirement villages share capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123...with-residents

Is the Rest Homes Party about to get too crowded - as more clueless muppets from another Quazi Govt Commission want to join in & have a mindless meddle in things ?

I knew there must have been good reason why I jumped out this sector a while back ..

[Brain]

Yes they did !!!! But it appears the NEW consensus is up for a while!!!

Yes economists are very good at describing the present but are absolutely hopeless at predicting the future and it seems to me there are no recriminations. Private sector guys go broke and lose their homes if they make judgements as bad as the economists

[Waltzing]

"clueless muppets from another Quazi Govt Commission"

Classic!

, well NZ just had an election. I dont know if anyone in wellington being paid by the tax payer really cares once the money is in the bank account!

[BlackPeter]

Yes economists are very good at describing the present but are absolutely hopeless at predicting the future and it seems to me there are no recriminations. Private sector guys go broke and lose their homes if they make judgements as bad as the economists

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/firs...and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

[Leftfield]

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/firs...and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

Well said BP......

[winner69]

Accountonomists are a different breed altogether ...a more realist approach to things than what economists practice.

[winner69]

A couple accountant economist jokes


—————————————————————————————————————————————————

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?




—————————————————————————————————————————————————— —-
Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock." The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet. "973," says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." Man picks one up and begins to walk away.

"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation." Man says sure. "You are an economist for a government think tank," says the shepherd. "Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"

"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my beagle and I will tell you."

—————————————————————————————————————————————————— ——-

[Waltzing]

Off Topic:

Its a nation in turbulence as the profits from property accumulate. Imagine if there is another crisis in the next ten years. We are hurrying to get ready.

[Brain]

Economists are perhaps better than some other people in explaining how the economy got to where it currently is, but they are as good as everybody else (but not worse either) in trying to predict the future.

If you want to understand the reasons you might want to look into chaos theory ... and the economy is not just a simple first order chaotic system but a second order chaotic system where elements with knowledge about the system are part of the system and does impact its behaviour. We all are part of the problem :

https://danielmiessler.com/blog/firs...and%20politics.

I think by now we all should know that NOBODY is able to predict the future, and this includes preachers of any couleur, politicians, analysts, sharetrader posters including you and me as well all economists.

No point in singling individuals out.

I am sure that every sensible person understands the difficulty of predicting the future as it is obvious to all. Unfortunately economists do not seem to have grasped that concept which is every reason to single them out.

[Beagle]

A couple accountant economist jokes


————————————————————————————————————————————— ————

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?




—————————————————————————————————————————————————— —-
Man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep. Tells the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock." The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet. "973," says the man. The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. Says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." Man picks one up and begins to walk away.

"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation." Man says sure. "You are an economist for a government think tank," says the shepherd. "Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"

"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my beagle and I will tell you."

—————————————————————————————————————————————————— ——-

Funnily enough the dog's first job in the school holidays as a young pup was on his uncle's sheep farm. 5,000 acres just out of Gore Southland. First job each morning was to ride right around the entire farm looking for cast sheep, sheep who had fallen over on their back and couldn't get up without help. (I suppose you'd send a drone up for that these days). The flock grows quite a bit each year as nature takes its course but you never really know how many until there's a full muster and you bring them all into the yards for drenching or shearing. Uncle Stan had quite a few Huntaway dog's. I used to watch in awe of their speed and determination and at how much they loved their work. I try and bring some of that enthusiasm into my work.

In the same way as you never really know how many sheep you've got until you do a full muster nobody really knows how much underlying profit OCA will earn for the year until there's a full muster of all sales and all costs. I suspect care costs have outstripped the ministry of health 3.0% increase on 1 July 2020 and the August lockdown in Auckland slowed them down a bit and there would have been some ongoing PPE gear costs.

Recent strong gains in real estate prices will take time to flow through into increased retirement unit pricing but those benefits will accrue to OCA in the years ahead and I am confident that having past the point of inflection with their business redevelopment plan we will see good growth in the years ahead.

Real estate is a long term investment, nobody should be under any illusion about that.