OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[iceman]

Yes well its all good to kick the "so called pros" down but there were some on here that are very knowledgeable that were equally as gloomy. We simply can't build houses here fast enough, add the amount of people coming back to live in N.Z = Supply & Demand constraints. Its not going away for sometime.

I see that statement a lot in the media and social media. All these people coming from overseas to snap up all the houses in NZ and explaining the house price craziness.. Well it is a complete myth.
In the 7 months to end of October 2020, net migration to NZ was a measly 2,512 people. For the same period in 2019, it was 40,195
.
.

[GTM 3442]

I see that statement a lot in the media and social media. All these people coming from overseas to snap up all the houses in NZ and explaining the house price craziness.. Well it is a complete myth.
In the 7 months to end of October 2020, net migration to NZ was a measly 2,512 people. For the same period in 2019, it was 40,195
.
.

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

[iceman]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

I think it is safe to assume this to be likely but the numbers are not as significant as is being reported, like 50-100 arriving per day and 40-70 leaving. It isn't setting the housing market on fire.

[Bjauck]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

The NZ investment environment has massive signs directing people to put their money (and their mortgages) into residential housing. This has been discussed on these threads. Even our current Labour Party PM implicitly admits this by ruling out a CGT under her watch, and stating that Kiwis expect House prices always to increase. Falling interest rates have just unlocked further pent up domestic demand.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she would like to see small increases in houses prices, acknowledging most people “expect” the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-when-it-comes

Ardern has effectively put neon lights around signs directing NZ residents to invest, either as owner-occupier investors or as other investors, in housing!

[iceman]

I just studied the numbers from Stats NZ a bit better. The numbers stated in my post above should be for the 6 months to end of September. not 7 months. My bad. But I've also gleaned that there was a net gain of 7,200 NZ Citizens in that period and net departures of 4,700 non NZ Citizens. That's about all the detail one can get from those numbers.

[GTM 3442]

I think it is safe to assume this to be likely but the numbers are not as significant as is being reported, like 50-100 arriving per day and 40-70 leaving. It isn't setting the housing market on fire.

Hmmmmmmmmmm. . . . . . . might have to polish up the excel skills and roll around a few statistically-oriented websites.

Would be interesting (although probably impossible) to be able to establish how many residential properties have been bought by non-resident NZ citizens in anticipation of an eventual return.

[FTG]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

Official migration figures are normally a good go-to when evaluating demand-supply dynamics for the real estate market. But as we know 2020 weren't normal times. In fact it appears that migration flows in NZ will be distorted for quite an extended period, arguably into at least 2022. So potentially a more accurate measure to assist one in understanding what is actually happening is looking at Arrival/Departure data (border passenger statistics data - provided by NZ Customs Service).

Taking a look at this provided a surprising overview!

Between March 1 & Sept 30 115,000 more people LEFT NZ than arrived. A good chunk of this occurred in March & April (tourists/short stay visitors returning home presumably). However, intriguingly the trend of more people LEAVING NZ than arriving has continued unabated, every single month.
The monthly numbers aren't huge, but they certainly seem to counter the impression that the media etc seem to enjoy creating - that stacks of Kiwis are returning and nobody is leaving.

Last 3 months:
Oct: Net LOSS of 1164 people
Nov:Net LOSS of 1943 people
Dec:Net LOSS of 3897 people

[iceman]

Hmmmmmmmmmm. . . . . . . might have to polish up the excel skills and roll around a few statistically-oriented websites.

Would be interesting (although probably impossible) to be able to establish how many residential properties have been bought by non-resident NZ citizens in anticipation of an eventual return.

Easy as. Just ask Phil Twyford. He did it with "Chinese sounding" names :-)

[blackie]

an interesting general discussion for the last page and a half.
perhaps someone can steer this back to OCA before we wander off onto tips for the best barbecue methods......

[Waltzing]

imagine the number of people in the population who follow statistics published by government agencies across OECD. Until 2008 all you had to do was cover the governing body of your business field or union.

Now you have multiple moving pieces in your environment effecting your investment decision unless your following the herd.

Or you simply say ill continue to invest in what i know about a demographic in a certain OECD population.

Here its simply even if a CGT is implemented which it already is. Property has a CGT in NZ and only your occupancy primary dwelling is except.

Talk of a CGT reducing house prices is therefore to a percentage moot.

OCA is a stock a bit like PEB. it has potential and you need some but not to much yet. They dont stand a chance of solving the housing crisis in NZ.