OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

Another new all time high, very nice. I am expecting underlying profit for the ten months of FY21 of $45m-$50m, (annualised $54m - $60m).

Wow, that would be exciting, I'm very grateful for the likes of Beagle, Maverick, Ferg, Winner and others who generously share their FA. Almost as much as the re-rate that started from about $1.00 that I've accumulated at for what seems a long time, even after chasing up a few more, OCA for me is currently 40% or so up.

That's plenty of head room for a decent correction, but even then I've squirrelled away another 40% cash (on whole of portfolio basis) which won't be deployed in any stocks until value buying re-emerges. [remember when OCA was under 40 cents during Covid?]. It could all end up in OCA if Covid-2 or some other 'event' happened. Who knows, time will tell.

Unbelievable but it happened, OCA bombed to half NTA!, I was too chicken to move until the low 70 cents but that significantly helped the average, enabling me to really hit the buy booster when the recovery looked confirmed and again when the re-rate locked in (and oh look at that!) and maintain an average that now sees me sleep like baby, content with what I have, but happy to buy more if the opportunity presents.

So, what is it that soothes the soul? Check out this chart ... I talked recently about the big wide channel bounding the highs and lows, nicely trending upwards. Well, recently a perfectly formed smaller channel emerged, one of those 1 or 2 cents a day channels that see a nice stable linear upwards movement running on the upper Bollinger Band but not too much above it, all the while still way above moving averages. This keeps the indicators close to overbought not not quite, nothing extreme to worry about. Will it continue? That's not for me to say, being so far above the MA's I'm not too concerned with the short term unless it means I have to break out the dry powder.

You could say OCA has has finally been 'discovered' by the value investors and possibly by some of the momentum investors. Maybe even a few traders are enjoying the move. I laugh now at the angst about McQuarie selling $1.20, not so much at the time. Lol.

Will it last? TBH I don't really care too much anymore, I have no intention of ever selling this asset that I've patiently accumulated for years. OCA isn't going bust either and it's got such an attractive multi decade sector tailwind, even the dips, maybe even the really big dips, really won't stop the company, it will only present more accumulation opportunities.

A long time ago I said I'm going to 'Vaygor this'. What a legend, what a lesson, I'm eternally grateful for his(?) lessons of RYM during the GFC.

Hope you enjoy my story and are on board yourselves.

GLTAH.

[winner69]

Had a coffee with a guy who seems to know an awful lot about Oceania property sales. The insight I got was that over time their unit selling prices haven't increased as much as property prices (on a region basis). In other words they've left a bit (maybe lots) on the table and not got 'full' price for their sales. He did sale they are addressing this and hopefully will get higher prices in the future

A few other insights but it's all looking good at Oceania

Jeez analysts are talking eps 20 cents or more in 2026 and that if that huge growth sees a rerate to a PE of 30 that's a share price of $6.00 in 2025 ... not too shabby. Shareprice more than trebles in 4 tears or so ...... can't have too many Oceania .... doesn't seem worthwhile in holding anything else

[Zaphod]

Consumer NZ warns of retirement villages' 'financial sting'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124...inancial-sting

Some interesting comments in there, especially those related to the deferred management fees.

Obviously this applies to the others companies in the same sector.

[James108]

I remember people saying you could never have too many Oceania several times over the last few years before proceeding to sell and then buy back later and saying the same thing. But this time is surely different.

Disc: Oceania is my equal second largest holding.

[Waltzing]

P/E 30 W(n)

well that would be interesting as SUM is on a high P/E already. The Fast Money was on SUM other share and boy oh boys and girls did we miss that express train..

want to see some good numbers going in the right direction before we move back bigger into this village.

[Mista_Trix]

I remember people saying you could never have too many Oceania several times over the last few years before proceeding to sell and then buy back later and saying the same thing. But this time is surely different.

Disc: Oceania is my equal second largest holding.

Yeah but if that person was Winner, you never know if he's being sarcastic or not...

...think he said it again just yesterday in fact :-S

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366976 Must be the season for building a deck on one's home.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366976 Must be the season for building a deck on one's home.

People always say, "be wary when insiders sell"

Maybe they did need to extend their deck??

[BlackPeter]

Looks like Operations Manager and Property Manager don't read this thread ... both selling - ouch, it appears they had too many !

General Manager Operations selling 200,000 shares:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...976/339635.pdf

General manager Property selling 666,666 shares:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...976/339636.pdf

They probably both just need a new deck, don't they?

edit:
Looks like beagle and Ggcc did beat me to it - sorry, I was a bit slow in posting and forgot to check whether somebody else notice that already.
Anyway - funny how we all formed independent from each other this deck building idea - great minds thinking alike?

Maybe time to invest in deck building companies (FBU?) - apparently OCA management thinks one can have too many OCA shares ...

[peat]

they still kept most of their holdings.
They're like me, taking some off the table every now and then - coz who knows eh?