OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[TobyPascoe92]

the history of this property market is the greatest housing market in NZ history.

Depicted by the first time property investor in Christchurch who in april went out and bought 5 houses or something like it and wants 20 by 2025.

now who knows what her ratios are but this women now advises others...

the dutch flower shows were like this... but of course NZ housing just might be the over priced in the world but its the most sort after...

this is a bubble be not mistaken so if OCA cant make it big now it never will.

Whole heartedly disagree with that summation of the property market & that article. I have personally followed her journey and she is an extremely hard worker and yes is prepared to take some risk. Nothing wrong with having 20 homes - someone has to provide homes for those who can't afford it. Now I hear people saying "oh but some people can't afford homes because of investors driving up prices". Bollocks - even if the NZ media price was $400,000 there would still be a very large group of people who couldn't afford that pricing level - there will always be. So those people need safe, warm, dry homes. The government can't keep up so its down to mum and dad investors. 79% of all investors own only one investment property. They are Mum & Dad investors trying to get ahead in life.

New Zealanders have been saying there is a bubble for 10 years now. When do you predict it will pop? People (influenced by media headlines) predicted in 2011, 2013, 2016 & now 2020/21 the bubble would pop... Still waiting.

Land scarcity, RMA, Re-Zoning, Interest Rates, Building Supply, Material hold ups in the construction industry etc etc are all part of the current demand.

In terms of OCA - increasing retired population in need of future care - while OCA may appeal to a certain demographic of that retired population (more wealthy), that population is still growing each and every year. Demand is only going one way. Land is becoming more scarce. There is no bubble. There is simply just a supply & demand equation that is and basically always has been out of balance.

When Ryman Healthcare was a $1.56 in 2006, NZ was in the middle of a property boom. I wonder how many times a day bubble was mentioned.

[Greekwatchdog]

This so called Bubble is not popping anytime soon. Councils keep ticking rates up because they keep over spending on what who knows, Land developers are increasing prices on lots they sell, Govt. is increasing wage to low end income earners in April, then want to give us a all another public holiday and 5 more sick days so whos paying? End user/home owner, then I haven't even mentioned material costs which are going up add Supply vs Demand problem and you have a perfect storm.

Even when banks start to increase interest rates it will only slow down this Housing market by couple of percent but until we build enough homes to support demand its not going to pop. And idea what decade that will be?

Retirement Operators are not the issue and they will do well regardless of this so called Bubble, they provide a service to us all and the Govt is generally lucky its run so well in NZ. If they make an extra quid on their Assets so be it. We all know risk reward here.

[dobby41]

Retirement Operators are not the issue and they will do well regardless of this so called Bubble, they provide a service to us all and the Govt is generally lucky its run so well in NZ. If they make an extra quid on their Assets so be it. We all know risk reward here.

Retirement operators are part of the solution providing houses for a significant chunk of the population in a compact, land frugal, way.
Homes the residents sell can house families - much more efficient use of resources.

[Waltzing]

ive removed this bit of fun because it was found by Mac Duffy to be un readable or something....

The debt to income ratios in some business sectors in NZ have been scaring the RBNZ for decades.

If this isnt a housing bubble hate to see a real one.

[clearasmud]

Where are we in the property cycle.
Having a concept of that calms down your exposures nervousness.

[clearasmud]

So much money is being made, hence cash with its negative real return is only great when the permabearis is correct.

[Dotbond]

Property / sharemarket cycle averages out at every 18 yrs according to history dating back a few hundred years.

[clearasmud]

Correct 18.6 years

[peat]

Correct 18.6 years

here is the housing price index and would appear to have formed (a temporary ) peak around 2007 , obviously relating to the GFC
Attachment 12289

so 2025?

[mike2020]

Was not really much of a dip was it? Unless you were highly leveraged and fixed around 9% and needed to sell. I do remember clearly what that little dip did to a lot of people I knew. Looks short on a graph but 3 or 4 years underwater can bring a lot of stress into your life.