OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[YoungBull]

What a buying opportunity. Beagle, thinking of adding?

[Baa_Baa]

Good story...may not be far from the truth.

4 cent drop through the 100MA, close at the 0.618 Fib retrace from the Dec 2020 run-up and a reasonable technical support area since October 2020 and going back to the high Dec 2019.

[justakiwi]

There seem to be posts missing from the end of this thread

EDIT: weird - they are there now.

[Beagle]

What a buying opportunity. Beagle, thinking of adding?

I'm quite content with my existing holding but if the market continues to mark them down in an untoward way just because Earl was headhunted by MET then yes, I'd reconsider the situation and may consider adding some more.

[winner69]

4 cent drop through the 100MA, close at the 0.618 Fib retrace from the Dec 2020 run-up and a reasonable technical support area since October 2020 and going back to the high Dec 2019.

Isn't a drop throughthr 100MA a big SELL signal for some?

Chart looking a bit sick ...TA says a lot

[Joh13]

The move through the 100MA is bearish, but it seems that this downward movement in SP hasn't been been backed up with a large volume. It also looks like the SP is pretty close to the 3 standard deviation lower band ($1.35) in the linear regression channel.
Showing a few hidden divergences on the indicators. I see potential downward pressure until $1.35 then a bounce back towards $1.50ish. Doesn't help that Earl has resigned, only fundamental change i can see. Macro changes, treasury bond yields. OCA bond yield has climbed a bit. 2.90%ish
I think this is a market overreaction.

[Alpha]

So a good time to buy then.... I am close to topping up and have been watching carefully. I am keen to see next update re CEO. Otherwise this is a nice long term hold and I also am very comfortable with my current holding

[Entrep]

Hasn't tested this level, good chance it will

Attachment 12352Attachment 12352

It's a shame that any image uploaded to this site gets reduced to miniscule size

[Beagle]

The move through the 100MA is bearish, but it seems that this downward movement in SP hasn't been been backed up with a large volume. It also looks like the SP is pretty close to the 3 standard deviation lower band ($1.35) in the linear regression channel.
Showing a few hidden divergences on the indicators. I see potential downward pressure until $1.35 then a bounce back towards $1.50ish. Doesn't help that Earl has resigned, only fundamental change i can see. Macro changes, treasury bond yields. OCA bond yield has climbed a bit. 2.90%ish
I think this is a market overreaction.

Yeah pretty much how I see it too. If he wants to sell his soul for 30 pieces of silver and go and work for the Swedes who strong armed the MET board using shyster tactics, good riddance. You don't get to be director of investment banking at Jarden without a huge skillset and being a great leader so I feel we're in very good hands with Brent Pattison and only a matter of time before the board ratifies his acting role as being permanent.

The market hates surprises like this so hence the share price reaction. Opportunity knocks for those that are prepared to look through the way we've all been sold out and stick to investing for the strong growth in the years ahead. Maybe another day or two of share price weakness, maybe not, and then the market starts to think about the fresh perspective and approach the vastly experienced Brent Pattison will bring to the table as well as the value on the table with the shares trading at only a small premium over 30/11/2020 NAV of $1.24, (perhaps 31/03/2021 NAV is somewhere in the low $1.30's ?)..so really with the shares where they are...any further weakness is quite an opportunity especially for anyone focused on the long term. That's my 2 cents worth after reflecting on it for a while...

[YoungBull]

Forsyth Barr post on the aged care sector this morning. In summary:

Forsyth seeking to track whether the lofty housing market is being reflected in increased pricing in aged care sectors. Forsyth conducted a test of 550 data points from more than 70 individual villages. They used 'like for like' unit pricing comparisons (apples to apples). Their 'Montgomerie Ibbotson' price index showed an increase of 3% in February alone.

This increase in February was driven by Independent Living Unit increases, up 4% (compare this to an average increase of 4-5% per year). HOWEVER, Forsyth note the majority of their data is from SUM, whose ILU's increased by 7% in Feb. Ryman showed a more modest increase of +1%. ​Forsyth have substantially fewer data points for ARV and OCA so conclusions are more difficult to draw, but the data suggests increasing prices for ARV's ILU's and stable prices for OCA.


Side note: google searches for OCA increasing while RYM and ARV have been largely stable.

I hope OCA take correct advantage of the housing market.