OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[dibble]

Tax implications are a determinant in investment decision making/pricing.

Wouldnt disagree, imputations spring to mind. But if tax is the key factor in someone's investment decision I'd say it's not the most sustainable investment strategy. Tax settings change regardless of what you think is fair and property investment has been a hot topic for countless elections so comes with risk. And all politicians bend truths/break promises, everyone knows that, trust them at your peril.

[Blue Skies]

ARV and RYM down 4%, SUM 6% and OCA 7% since govt announced changes re housing ...NZX up 1% in same time

Maybe govt policy has actually impacted sector sentiment

Agreed, was just looking at today's SP's where both SUM & RYM up.
Lots of conflicting predictions from various quarters & I guess will take a while for sentiment to shake out both in house price inflation expectations and impact on retirement sector.
While rents might increase, so should home ownership and we are still thousands of dwellings short.

[Scrunch]

Any scaling takes into account the size of your original shareholding.

And even if over subscribed there may be no scalling as oca has kept the option open of accepting oversubscriptions.

[Balance]

Deleted deleted

[Lease]

Surely the new housing policy will put downward pressure on property prices, and this is the aim of Government policy.

The retirement village sector will be hit given the fact it's highly correlated to property prices, but it should be a chance to accumulate more shares as the sector will prosper in the long-run.

[Blue Skies]

Surely the new housing policy will put downward pressure on property prices, and this is the aim of Government policy.

The retirement village sector will be hit given the fact it's highly correlated to property prices, but it should be a chance to accumulate more shares as the sector will prosper in the long-run.

Think a bit more complex than a single aim. The aims of the govt policy include, 1) take the heat out of dangerously high house price inflation. 2) increase home ownership rates which have been diminishing as First home buyers being outbid by investors. 3) strongly incentivise investment towards new builds & away from existing housing to increase NZ housing stock.

When we read of the frenzy of speculators treating our housing stock like gambling chips, paying a million dollars for homes in Mangere & South Auckland, & saying this is better than Bitcoin, we've heading towards an economic as well as a social disaster.

Since we can't magic up overnight the 80,000 new homes needed to balance supply and demand, govt had to pull other levers & remains to be seen how effective new policies will be but anything which stops housing stock being treated like Bitcoin got to be good!

Since I think the govt is showing they are incentivising construction & new builds, I can't see them doing anything to hurt the Retirement sector which have shown they are very proficient at construction projects & adding to housing stock.

[Curly]

You only need to look at RYM and SUM share price today. Since inception the SP has continued to increase during periods of little or no capital growth in property values. Certainly nothing like the property increases over the past two years yet SP continued to climb. Its about supply and demand. All healthcare facilities have done their research and it is widely known that there will be a wall of retirement age people wanting and needing their facilities and services in the next decade. OCA’s plan is in place and they are growing their income and asset base. The patient will be rewarded. To much emotion, “game changer, tide has turned” and government bashing. We are seeing knee jerk reaction to recent government actions which will have little impact long term.
Time will tell.

[Baa_Baa]

Since I think the govt is showing they are incentivising construction & new builds, I can't see them doing anything to hurt the Retirement sector which have shown they are very proficient at construction projects & adding to housing stock.

Completely agree and they’ll be cautious about bashing retirement regulations as well, they can see the tsunami coming and the costs to government that come with that. They need retirement companies to be successful building supply and the intake to be able to sell their properties and afford to move into the next phase of their lives.

This attachment to property market is relevant but over stated imo, the current surprise will blow over and investors will settle back into thinking long term

[Baa_Baa]

You only need to look at RYM and SUM share price today. Since inception the SP has continued to increase during periods of little or no capital growth in property values. Certainly nothing like the property increases over the past two years yet SP continued to climb. Its about supply and demand. All healthcare facilities have done their research and it is widely known that there will be a wall of retirement age people wanting and needing their facilities and services in the next decade. OCA’s plan is in place and they are growing their income and asset base. The patient will be rewarded. To much emotion, “game changer, tide has turned” and government bashing. We are seeing knee jerk reaction to recent government actions which will have little impact long term.
Time will tell.

Another insightful post, thank you. Some people buy the company, others buy the market. Or sell it. This is not a traders stock, it is a position in a company for a long term prosperity. The ups and downs are largely irrelevant unless it helps one build a larger stake

Imho

[Waltzing]

Policies that are brought to the market with speed indicate a behaviour that may repeat.

To invest without a view to likely policy changes by government is investing without fore thought (surely something like this was in everyones mind, we expected something).

I think we have always stated here that a 10 year view or more for retirement stocks is probably realistic for a defensive investment sector.

It only the last 5 -7 years that this sectors growth has accelerated at a high pace than in the early 2000's.

Once the market settles down to its new policies it may tread back its pre 2012 averages as housing supply slowly ramp up over the next 2 to 4 years.

The economic benefits of a demographic that is not mired in debt is good for the whole economy.

The US is not NZ but its housing demand is increasing.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/29/s...ies/index.html