OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Cyclical]

Article here showing month on month house prices had declined 4% as of 20th March off the back of the LVR changes. That's one of the things I don't get, they barely gave that one a chance to kick in and consider the affects, which to me really begs the question just how much forethought and advice seeking did actually go into last week's "new" tax?

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star...-prices-drop-4

Oh well, I'm out of OCA for now...capital preservation. Gonna sit back with the popcorn and wait for the dust to settle.
For those that keep sticking knives into Beagle, get over it. I think it's bloody great that he wares his heart on his sleeve and tells it as he sees it. Whether you choose to heed his advice or not is entirely up to you. He's a trader at heart and if you're that way inclined, it pays not to get too emotional about stocks. He's been having reservations about the company's ability to contain costs and grow profits for some weeks now. The government's bombshell last week was just the final straw...that was material change right there and you can't blame anyone for taking steps to minimise their exposure to such an outrageous policy change.

[justakiwi]

Good idea. Done.

.... put me on ignore.

[Beagle]

Good idea. Done.

Anyone else who finds my posts irksome is most welcome indeed to do the same.

Thanks Cyclical for your post.

[nztx]

Article here showing month on month house prices had declined 4% as of 20th March off the back of the LVR changes. That's one of the things I don't get, they barely gave that one a chance to kick in and consider the affects, which to me really begs the question just how much forethought and advice seeking did actually go into last week's "new" tax?

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star...-prices-drop-4

Oh well, I'm out of OCA for now...capital preservation. Gonna sit back with the popcorn and wait for the dust to settle.
For those that keep sticking knives into Beagle, get over it. I think it's bloody great that he wares his heart on his sleeve and tells it as he sees it. Whether you choose to heed his advice or not is entirely up to you. He's a trader at heart and if you're that way inclined, it pays not to get too emotional about stocks. He's been having reservations about the company's ability to contain costs and grow profits for some weeks now. The government's bombshell last week was just the final straw...that was material change right there and you can't blame anyone for taking steps to minimise their exposure to such an outrageous policy change.

One Answer .. Not much advice / research or listening done

What was to be expected from a Govt who ignored the RB advices then had them magically produce
money from out of the hat & from nowhere, creating huge State sanctioned inflation (ie instantly
billions pumped into a balloon overnight against the same real goods & assets in the market)

Everyone's notional value of money devalued .. they wonder why RE, Shares, Businesses etc etc
get whipped upwards in value by the market trying to maintain value for money and better
returns than the miserable pittance of rates that the banks & money markets currently pay ..

In the current state of things RRE wise - if the problem was really pressing urgent then any participants in helping out
may have been viewed as beneficial, but no - the directed vendetta from Princess & the band of ignorants
overrode that completely - we know what the result will likely be down the track .. Twyford Pt II
more bull dust and attempts to pass the buck & blame ..

Let's see if the similar blissfully ignorant scenario plays out with the Rest Home Corporates ..

Govt's have such fine track records in meddling in business .. what could possibly go right ?

The current lot's endeavours at shooting from the hip at a drop of a hat while the RB is merrily
pouring more petrol on the flames really says a good deal about the quality of the talent (or lack thereof)
that we have parked up in the pews at the Beehive, along with their direct lines to their spinning machines
to try to spin notions there could be any sort of justification for their knee jerk decisions ..

[Waltzing]

GFC 2008... best year was 2018-2019 dividends returns were outstanding.

let me see... 2027? Should be returning to good dividends returns in time for the new 45% tax rate.

[Cyclical]

GFC 2008... best year was 2018-2019 dividends returns were outstanding.

let me see... 2027? Should be returning to good dividends returns in time for the new 45% tax rate.

OMG, are you implying they'll get a 4th term?!

[Waltzing]

Sorry about that, nearly spilt my easter instant morning coffee, who wrote that!!!

Forget the hard stuff terrible for your health. Green tea is better apparently. Dont forget your greens.

Houses prices are going to have to drop a to reduce the profit on builds and they might. Next few months auctions will be interesting.

The sentiment is certainly going to be on costs going up for builds and wage pressures accruing.

The government will squeeze this sector hard that is our bet.

Show me one minister who has run a business. They dont care about profits in this sector when they have every health board and education insto banging on the table.

RBNZ doesnt want to have to hold the long end down for years.

The numbers arnt adding up even if only 4 B deficit. Its the debt thats building. Squeeze might not be the word for it. Flatten it more likely.

Why not tap the investor community for the costs of running these retirement companies.

Actual US stocks that will benefit from the 2 T rebuild might be where the action is. Get your hatch account moving.

Its time to move back to OE markets years sooner than we ever imaged.

Until Mav's model starts to deliver its just NOT an over weight.

[Cyclical]

Until Mav's model starts to deliver its just NOT an over weight.

This is the thing, right. Mav may have good reason to suggest residential property prices shouldn't have a big impact on the sector's bottom line, and justifiably so, but for most of us less astute, there would appear to be an inextricable link and it will be sentiment that reigns above all else. At best I see RPP flattening out for a couple of years or so, worst case a retraction of sorts. Couple that with political uncertainty (weren't they doing a review of how the retirement sector treats capital gains?) means in my view the likely direction of the SP in the short to medium term is more to the downside than up. This new quarter will be telling as we see how the RP market plays out...maybe some volatility in the meantime with opportunities for the traders that are brave enough.

[Beau]

How come a lot of this isn’t getting a mention on the other resthome pages well very little considering Rymans and Summerset are tilted more towards the development side of it than care side.

[bottomfeeder]

Usually when anything booms, the first thoughts a government has is to tax it. When house prices started to boom they should have introduced a stamp duty, with an exemption for commercial, first home buyers and you guessed it, retirement villages. Even though for the latter you mostly don't buy the unit, you buy a licence to occupy.

Retirement villages need to reprice their licences to reflect the supply and demand and not attach themselves to any residential statistics. I see this sector still going to boom for a while yet. I may look at it simply, but you cant get bogged down in too much detail. I am way overweight in OCA and have put in for my 50 k in the issue. Just hoping that the SP drops and stays low for a few weeks yet.