OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[warren]

I've been watching from a distance at this one, while the result is less than glittering, the company isn't poorly run and management know what they are doing.

A lot of people were probably expecting this one to go to the moon today but there is enough here to like what I see. A lot of development in the pipeline, and looks like they are savvy enough to keep it on time. Be patient, this is not a flier but a potentially profitable long term hold.

Disc: Keen observer, potential holder.

Hello Value. Agreed. Indeed Aged Care is never gonna be a Hanover (wasn't that principally a Development Company--- Yes for sure) !! But Aged Care, paid by the NZ Government every 2 weeks ,and in tidal wave proportions guaranteed, is gonna deliver to a top operator 5.5% + unlimited growth every single year. Beautiful, simply beautiful. Beat that in the Bank!

[Baa_Baa]

Wonder if all the bigger trades was one seller (probably was)

Whoever they were pretty keen sellers, generally taking the market down a cent at a time

Must have pretty disappointed with how things are going and the guidance.....wonder if they or more instos going to sell heaps more.

Must admit a pretty major reaction today

A few cents here or there, to take a substantial position is nothing in the scheme of things. Or to get out on a large holding, albeit a few cents on the SP for a nice profit. Probably best for us minnows to not worry too much about what the big volume does, unless it moves the SP significantly, which it hasn't in this case.

[winner69]

The comments on this thread (almost from day one but more recently) seem to be echos from the Metro Glass thread

And Oceania presentations tend to read like the early Metro ones as well.

Hope history not repeating itself

[winner69]

Expect a recovery in the share price today after yesterday’s collapse.

The awesome cool cat won’t say a dead cat bounce because that implies the bounce will be short lived

The recovery will be the first step back towards 110 and onwards to 129 etc

[Beagle]

A forward PE of 13 on IPO forecast is 13 x 8.42 cps = $1.0946. Taken in light of the strong tailwinds prevailing in the sector for the next 25 years, comparative sector PE's, their stellar reputation for care, land acquisitions since the IPO, and their excellent consented, (which removes considerable development risk) development pipeline and the average market PE of just over 20 I would be surprised if the market didn't at least price them at 13 times historical earnings by the time they report their annual result in 6 months time.
Depending upon the outlook commentary that goes with the FY18 result we could be looking at 14 times FY19's results later this year as the company slowly but steadily earns the trust of the market. If they're looking at 20-25% growth in underlying earnings for FY19 we could be looking at say 14 x (8.42 x 1.25) = $1.47 this time next year.
Plenty of (I would argue realistic) potential here for a 50% total shareholder return inclusive of divdends in the next 12 months.

Great to see Directors buying more on market yesterday. Liz Coutts now holding 425,000 and Alan Isaac buying at $1.09.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/313448
It should be noted that they would have been unable to buy in the period immediately before the result.
No worries paying up to $1.09...what's good for the directors is good for shareholders...no worries.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...e-strategyhtml Very good article that should help people understand the company a little better. Well worth the time reading it.

[King1212]

Will we see the sp bounce back to $1.09 today?

[winner69]

Will we see the sp bounce back to $1.09 today?

Maybe only get to $1.08

[stoploss]

A forward PE of 13 on IPO forecast is 13 x 8.42 cps = $1.0946. Taken in light of the strong tailwinds prevailing in the sector for the next 25 years, comparative sector PE's, their stellar reputation for care, land acquisitions since the IPO, and their excellent consented, (which removes considerable development risk) development pipeline and the average market PE of just over 20 I would be surprised if the market didn't at least price them at 13 times historical earnings by the time they report their annual result in 6 months time.
Depending upon the outlook commentary that goes with the FY18 result we could be looking at 14 times FY19's results later this year as the company slowly but steadily earns the trust of the market. If they're looking at 20-25% growth in underlying earnings for FY19 we could be looking at say 14 x (8.42 x 1.25) = $1.47 this time next year.
Plenty of (I would argue realistic) potential here for a 50% total shareholder return inclusive of divdends in the next 12 months.

Great to see Directors buying more on market yesterday. Liz Coutts now holding 425,000 and Alan Isaac buying at $1.09.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/313448
It should be noted that they would have been unable to buy in the period immediately before the result.
No worries paying up to $1.09...what's good for the directors is good for shareholders...no worries.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...e-strategyhtml Very good article that should help people understand the company a little better. Well worth the time reading it.

That's very positive the directors buying on market @ 1.09. If they didn't think it was a good result and sustainable surely they would have been waiting for a better level . So reading between the lines good things to come .
DISC: Holding

[JoeGrogan]

Maybe only get to $1.08

LOL . As beagle said above directors buying up more, maybe that adds to the narrative of a big H2.

[warren]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4b37da2c/oceania-health-targets-wider-margins-with-high-end-aged-care-strategy.html?utm_medium=email&

Mr Beagle Many thanks for the above , very good indeed. So far the CEO impresses--well done CEO, so far!!

With housing in Auckland about to absolutely tank this coming winter I love the smaller exposure OCA has to it.
Hallelujah Aged Care and a stable NZ government that pays it and an underway Tax Review (widening and fairer Tax paying base) to keep my OCA investment flying. Fly she will with the Aged Care tidal wave as the Directors know only too well.