OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

"plenty of irrational panic statements"


MR B is thinking outside the box here and the trip wires are sending out loud alarm bells.

Sometimes when the dots point in a direction thats where the paint hits the canvas.

Very 'poetical' of you

Maybe its all a lot of noise that will as noise does subside and we'll all say what happened back then

I think that's what Tim just said!

[Waltzing]

What you are getting from MR B is a sound bite from the little offices where investment decision get there final stamp of approval.

Those investor balance sheets are not unlike any other business balance sheet.

The investors balance sheets purchased a class of assets.

The noise level equates to the total +- purchases of an asset class.

It might well be that those assets are re priced and that would be the repricing of a lot assets.

That sound like a lot of drums being banged on to us and its making a lot of loud sounds in every ACA office in the country.

That blaring sound is the sound of the klaxon as the helm goes hard a port.

[macduffy]

I guess that must mean something? Or not?

[winner69]

I guess that must mean something? Or not?

Suppose we shouldn’t do jokes about accountants but -

An accountant is someone who solves a problem you didn't know you had in a way you don’t understand

[Beagle]

Hugely experienced Tony Alexander weigh's in https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/39190 Excellent synopsis of the situation, in my opinion.

[Waltzing]

Mr B is alerting to a problem in the ROI at the desks he and other are sitting at.

That desk is where the money is put down and decisions are made as to which direction it flows in the market.

The long faces last week of that very class of professional was evident in the room. I think in posts above from MR B and ourselves have clearly stated the obvious already and its no joke.

It asks the question as to the products and land that make up a construction unto which you can lease for the purpose of housing is now an Asset class that is placed on a balance sheet for the purpose of investing as a business.

This is obvious , and its why Mr B has sounded the klaxon ," residential property assets in order to pursue social goals and effectively make private owners of residential property part of the state’s housing provision network."


"The characteristics of residential property as an asset in one’s portfolio have changed. That does not mean there is about to be a wholesale dumping of this asset. But it does suggest a slow repricing over time."

[winner69]

Mr B isn't a very famous accountant because he hasn't had a tax loophole named after him

[winner69]

Part of long post

In July 2017 they announced their maiden listed profit for the year ended 31/5/17 of $45m underlying earnings which based on the number of shares at the time was...drum roll please...9.14 cents per share.

This 9.14 cents EPS seems to be the basis of many of your discussions and that they ar doing worse now - had me puzzled.

Thing is Underlying Profit in year to May 2017 was $34.0m (not your $45m) - and EPS of 5.6 cents (on 610m shares)

So EPS performance hasn't been as bad as you have made out. Didn't look too bad up to Nov 19 but Covid put paid to that

Even after covid issues EPS at Nov20 was 19% higher than May 17 - not as good as the +58% as Nov 19 though

Here's a chart I posted a while ago - Rolling annual Underlying Earnings EPS

Pretty sure my numbers are correct

[Beagle]

Thanks, looks like a tired overworked bean counter chose the wrong reported profit figure from 2017. Easy enough mistake to make I suppose when they report profit so many different ways. Annual underlying eps has been downhill from May 2018 though when it was 8.54 cps. I need to get more rest and sleep, its been a long and very sad week for reasons I won't expand upon.

The fact remains that the tremendous growth in human resource costs has sucked the eps growth out of OCA to date and whether this changes going forward remains to be seen. justakiwi and her mates have certainly enjoyed good growth in their incomes. Not much money in providing high level's of high quality care. I can almost hear Mav in my head reminding me that they're building a lot of apartments as opposed to care suites in the next few years. Maybe some eps growth will eventually happen for those with heaps more patience ? Mav's probably got more patience than I have...good luck to him I reckon. One is best to work with their strengths, whatever they are.

On the other hand maybe the retirement sector review will throw up some real problems for this sector. The socialist risk premium has certainly escalated that's for sure !! Might keep my remaining shares just for interest seeing as they're free.

[Waltzing]

Team (BMW) posts again and we simply cant imagine why we would do a model of this stock.

The next underlying profit will be the last before the new rules start to come into effect.

It could be 12 months before the effects of this will start to be known for sure.

Therefore the next stats wont mean much as they will be under the old market models.

Any drum rolls will be almost meaningless.

"Mr B isn't a very famous accountant because he hasn't had a tax loophole named after him"

oh he must be an honest one then....