OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[thegreatestben]

I suspect a lot here are (much) older than me but a few of you are acting like children.

[porkandpuha]

This would be a psychologists dream. Its quite sad how one can throw there tantrums at people but cant take it when its thrown back. Sort of reminds me of the crap on ATM thread and we lost a very useful poster because of it.

Well said. I can't go to the threads of any of my holdings without Beagle ruining the mood of the room. Oops, better lawyer up now...

Anyhow, after reassessing the situation I am happy to hold OCA, and contemplate adding more. Nothing has materially changed the long term outlook in my mind.

[Joh13]

Hi all, great to see some back and forward about pros and cons with OCA. Im glad that it's not all one sided, we need to see balanced discussions. Beagle, Maverick love your work I hope that I can be as knowledgeable as both of you one day. I really do value this forum and everyone that contributes.

With recent goings on I think that OCA got a pretty decent deal with the acquisitions and I'd rather they used equity to fund these first acquisitions than increase their debt levels so that they can use debt in the future.

The recent SP decrease is interesting and think it has been over done as the SP usually is with perceived risk, but thats to be expected with pretty bad timing of things occurring, New tax laws, CEO leaving, Equity Raise, White papers, Bond Yields increasing and a lot of talk about residential property prices reducing... all have worked against OCA's SP so really it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that the SP has reduced. How low will it go i'm not to sure, I do note that Baa_Baa has shown a chart with support around the 200MA and 61.8% Fib i'm not entirely convinced it will shoot up from here in the short term as it isn't showing a couple of other TA signals I like to use. But I am confident about the future growth of the company in the long term and will be trying to get as many shares that I can through the retail offering.

For those interested, although not OCA directly I think this article covers a lot of things that have been spoken about on this thread and is pretty appropriate to OCA https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...ation#comments Happy Easter all

Just noticed this on OCA's Facebook page. I like the direction... is Brent making his mark already? https://fb.watch/4GIH5-Igh7/ Seems website has been updated as well.
'Believe in Better'

[tomg]

Bunch of wee babies

[nztx]

Suppose we shouldn’t do jokes about accountants but -

An accountant is someone who solves a problem you didn't know you had in a way you don’t understand

Just watch for the bill followed by the Tax bill you didn't realise you'd be getting too ..

Quite a few Accountants here - huh

Try not to be too harsh - the best Accountants make many Winners ..

[nztx]

Back on OCA .. wish I had the glowing enthusiasm for this one

Sure - rode out of the depths of Covid with Rest Home stocks until OCA pulled the lower result late last year
based mostly on lower revaluations .. that brings on another valid point Most of the Reported Profit is
if not mistaken Revaluation Gains, very little tax if any paid & no Imputation credits attached anywhere..

Reporting Obscene profits and paying little or no tax *must* be attracting prying eyes of the tinkering Socialist
ignoramus brigade eager to plug horrendous gaping holes in their fiscal agendas by any means - surely ?

For my money it looks like almost time to pull the chocks out from under the sub $0.80c pile and let them loose
on the market .. I think safer bets elsewhere or dare I say it - the lowly sub 1.00% deposit account while the market
looks for direction following end of the March - April dividend season.. bound to be more surprises and steals
coming into view in coming months ..

and disappointments

and Govt prescribed craziness too

and burst bubbles (just a matter of time .. let's not kid ourselves - a matter 'when' not 'if' ..)

and revelations on just who the stayers and gainers through their fiscal astuteness really are ..

and of the pretenders and others not meeting the mark, also coming through..

[winner69]

Often it is said that the amount of cash generated by a company is very telling on how the company is doing.
So I decided to relook at the most recent half years report operating cash flow numbers, up over 30% compared to the previous comparable period.
That to me seems positive.

Looking back at the operating cash flow since 2017 tells a trend,
2017 $33m, 2018 $82m, 2019 $89m, 2020 $99m and 1H21 $75m.

The most recent past might be a clue the direction OCA is going in future years.

Yes forest, always good to look at cash flows

Operating cash flows only counts what they sell stuff for - it doesn't count the cash used in building stuff.

Free Cash Flows have been been negative, like 2017 59m / 2018 48m/ 2019 64.5m / 2020 37m and H121 positive 14m (positive because they had to stop building)

So cash burn (if you want to call it that) from 2017-2020 has been 209m - and in addition they've paid shareholders 63m so you could say they've consumed 272m cash in those 4 years.

Should look at that 272m in the context of Equity (Book Value)only increasing by 130m in that period

[James108]

I’ve always liked the cash generating aspect of the retirement villages. It’s a pretty good business model where you get to build a building, get a large chunk of the cash back within a year or two of completion AND retain ownership of it.

As winner has pointed out you don’t get all of the cash back, and the cash outflows will be higher when building is increasing.

[forest]

Yes forest, always good to look at cash flows

Operating cash flows only counts what they sell stuff for - it doesn't count the cash used in building stuff.

Free Cash Flows have been been negative, like 2017 59m / 2018 48m/ 2019 64.5m / 2020 37m and H121 positive 14m (positive because they had to stop building)

So cash burn (if you want to call it that) from 2017-2020 has been 209m - and in addition they've paid shareholders 63m so you could say they've consumed 272m cash in those 4 years.

Should look at that 272m in the context of Equity (Book Value)only increasing by 130m in that period

I agree Winner that there is more to understanding OCA than the operating CF numbers.
So it is good to look at other expenditure and understand the reason for it.
We know that OCA are still in a process of conversion of many of their villages so it is good to see that even before the process has come to an end operating CF's are going in the right direction.
Soon investment expenditure will reduce and efficiency in the operating of the villages increase.

[Habits]

I’ve always liked the cash generating aspect of the retirement villages. It’s a pretty good business model where you get to build a building, get a large chunk of the cash back within a year or two of completion AND retain ownership of it.

As winner has pointed out you don’t get all of the cash back, and the cash outflows will be higher when building is increasing.

I dont know if the model is that good... the cashflow yield is not much better than renting out the same asset and after 3 or 4 years the retiree occupant gets to live there for freeeeee! ...For the rest of their lives.