OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[dobby41]

Times must be getting tougher - a lot of full page ads in the paper for the sector.
Usually Ryman but OCA with a front page wrap in the Herald.
Sign of a more difficult market?

[winner69]

Image you have clients with millions to invest. Then you start realise your not just some hobby investor but a professional looking after the capital of dozens of trust and dozens and dozens of investment portfolio companies and the size of the technical multiples.

In those small and large offices the numbers are being re run.

Mr B knows the situation and the size of coming reallocations and it start's soon; you wont see it and you wont hear about it on this forum.[/COLOR]

So all these experts / professionals / gurus are making a lot of guesses

Probably keep changing the inputs until they get the answer their gut feel says is right

Often these guru's suffer from motivated reasoning - esp when playing with other's cash

[Vince]

Folks,

On topic please and enough of all the other BS.

Thanks

[Habits]

Judging from the smiling faces of the retirees on the telly, they will be very happily living in a wonderful self care retirement unit for many many years. Perhaps the ones on the adverts are those who have passed 4 years occupation .... saying to themselves 'Im freeeee!'. And ... 'what would I do with the capital funds anyway when TDs are sub 1 percent'. You know they would not be investing in retirement companies

[James108]

I dont know if the model is that good... the cashflow yield is not much better than renting out the same asset and after 3 or 4 years the retiree occupant gets to live there for freeeeee! ...For the rest of their lives.

Habits, have another think about this, if you build a unit for $1m and sell the ORA for $0.9m (not sure what the exact margin for the village are as this is a far more complicated issue than the reported development margin, which does not include the cost of communal assets, would have you believe) is your yield calculated on the $1m or $100k, or do you need to do some fancy DCF thing to work it out. its definitely the latter but I would imagine better than rental..

I also quite sure that oceania employs at least one person that knows a bit about statistics so that the chance of someone "living for free" is simply a cost of doing business and included in the ORA.

[Waltzing]

Sticking to some facts not other stuff..

the sell side today is heavier than the buy.

The market seems to want to take profits today. Lets see how it ends today and the next 2 weeks.

[Habits]

Habits, have another think about this, if you build a unit for $1m and sell the ORA for $0.9m (not sure what the exact margin for the village are as this is a far more complicated issue than the reported development margin, which does not include the cost of communal assets, would have you believe) is your yield calculated on the $1m or $100k, or do you need to do some fancy DCF thing to work it out. its definitely the latter but I would imagine better than rental..

I also quite sure that oceania employs at least one person that knows a bit about statistics so that the chance of someone "living for free" is simply a cost of doing business and included in the ORA.

I'm sorry i cant understand your numbers or they dont add up. Do you mean 900k not 100k?

[James108]

No, 1m minus 900k equals 100k. I.e the amount of money still tied up in the building (in this example).

[Habits]

No, 1m minus 900k equals 100k. I.e the amount of money still tied up in the building (in this example).

Ok I could have explained it better but still this is not complex. You do say in the first post ... "if you build a unit for $1m and sell the ORA for $0.9m"

That is a 100k shortfall on the development cost. So yes there is 100k after taking away 900 ORA fee from the 1 million build cost. Not profitable and wont be in business long on your figures

[Gunner]

Insiders have been buying up large