OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Ok, so I'm going to put my hand up and say that my analysis of OCA after the results announcement may have been a little harsh.

I've looked into it further and by my rough calculations (which could be off the mark) I have gathered that OCA will have 137 +/- new units and care suites to sell in FY19 and 187 +/- new units and care suites to sell in FY20.

If we believe they are on target to sell 84 new units and 11 new care suites in FY18 then this would represent 44% growth in new sales in FY19 and a further 36% growth in FY20. Not bad.

Now looking back at the FY17 Annual Report it included a nice little graphic that outlined the number of new units and care suites that were sold and resold. I couldn't find anything like that in the half year report that just came out. Did I miss something? If they outlined how many units and suites they have sold so far this year we could calculate how many more they have left to sell out of the units that have been completed. I think this would go some way to help figuring out if they are on track to meet forecasts. Can somebody please help find these figures since OCA didn't make it easy to find in their report?

According to their "highlights" they completed in November and December 2017 a total of 35 units. Given that it takes time to sell them (At SUM they assume an average of 3 to 4 months between "completed" and "sold") would I imagine that they sold at least at record date hardly any of them - though meaningful numbers are probably going under the hammer right now .

I'd expect for H2 that they sell the 35 units as above plus half of the remaining units (67) they plan to complete in the second half of FY2018.

Make that a total of 69 units to sell (and hopefully sold) this year (obviously - just a stab in the dark, my guess is as good as yours ...). The years to come should look much better, indeed.

[BobbyMorocco]

According to their "highlights" they completed in November and December 2017 a total of 35 units. Given that it takes time to sell them (At SUM they assume an average of 3 to 4 months between "completed" and "sold") would I imagine that they sold at least at record date hardly any of them - though meaningful numbers are probably going under the hammer right now .

I'd expect for H2 that they sell the 35 units as above plus half of the remaining units (67) they plan to complete in the second half of FY2018.

Make that a total of 69 units to sell (and hopefully sold) this year (obviously - just a stab in the dark, my guess is as good as yours ...). The years to come should look much better, indeed.

OK, so what I'm disappointed about now is that there's still a lot of guesswork going on with OCA. I think they could have taken some of the guesswork out of it by providing clear details about where things are at in terms of sales in the half year report. Hopefully they do this in the full year report and take some of the guesswork out of it.

Reading the 2017 Annual report I got the impression they had sold 20 out of 44 units at Lady Allum Village up until that point. They've now sold 30, so that's 10 in the bank for this year. That leaves another 14 of those to sell in the second half of this year plus they will hopefully sell a fair number of the 127 units and suites completed between November 2017 and January 2018.

I am now starting to see why you guys (and Earl Gasparich) think they're still on target to meet this year's forecasts.

[winner69]

Analysts not that bullish on OCA

With those targets (presumably for a year out) OCA is more than fairy priced at the moment.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...im-result.html

[winner69]

So Taerget prices of 106, 109 and 100

Average of 105

Target remember - one year out with a 15% return(?)

Implies these gurus reckon shareprice should be about 91 cents now (if 10% return about 95 cents)

Trouble is if FNZC and Macquaries have those sort of expectations that sort of becomes embedded in the market psyche

Hard to see much movement (upwards of course) over the next few months

Just saying

[couta1]

So Taerget prices of 106, 109 and 100

Average of 105

Target remember - one year out with a 15% return(?)

Implies these gurus reckon shareprice should be about 91 cents now (if 10% return about 95 cents)

Trouble is if FNZC and Macquaries have those sort of expectations that sort of becomes embedded in the market psyche

Hard to see much movement (upwards of course) over the next few months

Just saying

Not exactly inspiring aye, boring to hold, just like SML.

[Beagle]

So Taerget prices of 106, 109 and 100

Average of 105

Target remember - one year out with a 15% return(?)

Implies these gurus reckon shareprice should be about 91 cents now (if 10% return about 95 cents)

Trouble is if FNZC and Macquaries have those sort of expectations that sort of becomes embedded in the market psyche

Hard to see much movement (upwards of course) over the next few months

Just saying

There's a LOT of companies trading well north of analysts price targets though, to be fair.

[couta1]

There's a LOT of companies trading well north of analysts price targets though, to be fair.

Down to $1, holding a 2.1c divvy, cough,cough. Punters listening to them analysts aye.

[Beagle]

Trading below net tangible asset backing which as at 30 November 2017 was $1.01. All that intellectual property and care reputation for free and a 2.1 cent dividend coming soon, record date 13 February 2018.

[winner69]

Trading below net tangible asset backing which as at 30 November 2017 was $1.01. All that intellectual property and care reputation for free and a 2.1 cent dividend coming soon, record date 13 February 2018.

Reported NTA was 81 cents

The $1.01 is a thing Oceania invented called ‘net adjusted value per share’

[winner69]

There's a LOT of companies trading well north of analysts price targets though, to be fair.

Maybe the gist of the discussion on the Are NZ equities too expensive thread points to a yes.

Analyst DCF valuations probably give a better idea of ‘value’ rather than some random ‘multiple’ of profit or something.....even with perceived dodgy assumptions.

Three different analysts come up with much the same answer as to what the present value of future cash flows is. Maybe they are about right and the market is a bit ahead of itself.