OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Mudfish]

Nice pick up Mav. I'm getting hard. Just in case others are unaware of the Market Screener site. Click the link below. You won't be disappointed, neither will your partner.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/

[tommy_d]

Apart from traders cashing in from the recent burst, I recon youd have to have rocks in your head to be selling right now.

thought about putting up a sell order for a few thousand at $1.97 for lols, Didn't.

[Gunner]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

[dompf]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

Exciting - will be interesting to note if there is a run up to results given most big players have this as a buy; but market does what the market does.

Still be very interested with what the results entail.

[winner69]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

so 10 months eh

Do we annualise to get a 'full year' figure - like if underlying earnings were 50m is an 'annual result' $60m (jeez that's a lot)

Or do we go back to last years results to May and assume that April/May was breakeven (covid) and then assume that a 12 months to March 21 is 50m

Sometimes companys change balance date they produce a 'proforma 12 months' set of accounts for comparative purposes going forward. Can't see Oceania doing that as they tend to make things as obtuse as they can....and that obtuseness will carry on for a while (like whats the comparative period for H122?)

I think that they do this on purpose

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest below..
Aged Care Sector
Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index


After a strong start to the year, our analysis suggests the Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged-care pricing index has been flat
over the last two months, increasing our confidence in its accuracy. We believe stable prices reflect two key factors; (1)
pricing caution from the listed operators in light of the government's housing policy announcement, and (2) potential
pricing timing discrepancies given the aged care operators don't typically review prices on a monthly basis. Looking
forward, we remain positive on the sector and believe the pricing "buffer" built up by the operators following New
Zealand's strong recent house price inflation (HPI) provides resilience in the event of a slowing housing market and further
optionality if prices remain stable or continue to trend upwards.
MI aged care pricing index flat over the past two months
Following a strong lift in prices to start 2021 with January up +0.5% and February up +2.9%, the MI aged care pricing index has
been flat through March and April. Independent Living Units (ILUs) were the key driver of change to start the year (up +4.4%) and
while there has been no change in ILU pricing through March and April we have again seen minimal change in Serviced Apartment/
Care Suite (SA/CS) pricing. This SA/CS pricing trend relative to ILUs is somewhat surprising but likely reflects the defensive and less
cyclically exposed nature of the product. Summerset (SUM), Arvida (ARV) and Ryman (RYM) all show broadly flat prices over the past
two months but we have seen a slight tick up in Oceania's (OCA's) ILU and SA/CS pricing, albeit caution the material sample size
difference for OCA versus RYM and SUM.
Pent up house price inflation provides a "buffer"
One of the key takeaways from our recent aged care tour was the "buffer" retirement village operators have to further increase prices
following the shift in New Zealand house prices over the past twelve months (c. +20%). Numerous operators on our tour suggested
that, while prices have increased modestly in recent months, there are more price rises on the horizon given some opted to delay
pricing decisions in light of COVID-19 uncertainty through the second half of CY20. Our analysis suggests these price increases are
yet to occur, likely in-part due to the government's housing policy announcement on March 23. We view this buffer as important to
help provide price resilience in a slowing market but also add further optionality going forward.

[winner69]

Not much action OCA share price at the moment

Maybe punters will get more excited as we get closer to Friday next week

I wouldn’t be surprised if they came up with 55m underlying earnings

[Beagle]

Four brokers all rate it a BUY, lowest valuation $1.55 and highest $1.80, average $1.70. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/
Mav tells us that underlying earnings are too crude a measure to value OCA and tells us we should be at $2 this time next year. The analysts and Mav can't possibly all be wrong at the same time, surely not...
More group hugs and contented lie downs, what could possibly go wrong...https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...26pid%3DImgRaw.

[Baa_Baa]

Four brokers all rate it a BUY, lowest valuation $1.55 and highest $1.80, average $1.70. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/
Mav tells us that underlying earnings are too crude a measure to value OCA and tells us we should be at $2 this time next year. The analysts and Mav can't possibly all be wrong at the same time, surely not...
More group hugs and contented lie downs, what could possibly go wrong...https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...26pid%3DImgRaw.

Forbar 26/3 said $1.70 then shortly after 14/4 raised to $1.80 OUTPERFORM.

Either the analysts are wrong, or the market is. $1.36 now. 13 out of the last 14 days have all touched on the 50MA ... yes you guessed it, $1.366.

[BlackPeter]

Forbar 26/3 said $1.70 then shortly after 14/4 raised to $1.80 OUTPERFORM.

Either the analysts are wrong, or the market is. $1.36 now. 13 out of the last 14 days have all touched on the 50MA ... yes you guessed it, $1.366.

I think consensus forecast is defined as a 12 month target. Admittedly, analysts are still more often wrong than right, but you will need to show some patience to find out which of these two options apply this time :