OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Agree - and good to see that a company is able to grow their own leadership team by internal promotions instead of hiring high flyers from somewhere else.

The crisis of mediocre men

[BlackPeter]

The crisis of mediocre men

Well yes, if more companies make a habit out of this than it might turn into a crisis for show offs and job-hoppers. Not sure, though whether this is something gender specific ... seen during my time these attributes exposed in both major genders (and, to stay PC, I suspect that all the other genders do have their fair share of mediocrity, showing off and job hopping as well) ...

[percy]

Pretty solid team behind Brent now

Good appointments

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...107/345903.pdf

With Liz Coutts as Chair,and Gregg Tomlinson as a director and major shareholder, I expect the best people were appointed.

[Beagle]

Latest REINZ stat's are out for April 2021, the first full month since the significant tax change by the Govt. https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...April+2021.pdf
Others will interpret them in a different way and that's fine but my read on this is the National Median price in April 2021 was down to $810K from $825K in March 2021 a drop of 1.8% (implied annual rate of decline is 21.6% per annum)
Volume of sales in April was 7,218 down from 10,022 in March 2021, some of this is no doubt a seasonal change.

I am sure Cindy and Grant with their radical socialism will be pleased with the early signs of the impact they have made and I expect the trend towards cooling off in this sector to continue.

These results are pretty much consistent with what I expected which is why I have substantially reduced my exposure to this sector.

I think in this new "cooling" real estate market there will be very limited opportunity for retirement villages to raise prices and capture any meaningful part of the significant rise in prices to the year ended 31 March 2021. Essentially this represents a missed opportunity due to lack of being proactive on Earl's part. Maybe they can capture past gains on the next leg up in the real estate sector ?, (whenever that might be).

For what its worth I estimate underlying profit in the range of $40-45m for the ten months ended 31 March 2021. Lets see how we go....I've been very close with FY20's result and 1H FY21. Talk of close to $2 this time next year is extremely optimistic in my opinion. Most likely is this will track ostensibly sideways for the foreseeable future and I expect an unimputed yield of 3-4% which is better than money in the bank so I will stick with a small position. In the long run these will do okay but investors will need to be VERY patient.

[Habits]

Its dangerous and meaningless to extrapolate like that Beagle, that is barking mad lolz

[Beagle]

Yeah its drawing a long bow to extrapolate out one month's data into both an annualized basis and presumptive to suggest this is the start of a trend, (especially when there is only one month's data) but i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.

I'm quite comfortable with my read of the situation that the Govt's moves will have a material impact in the market and the first month's data is initial confirmation of my assessment that the tide has turned. Like all things, time will tell for sure.

[artemis]

Yeah its drawing a long bow to extrapolate out one month's data into both an annualized basis and presumptive to suggest this is the start of a trend, (especially when there is only one month's data) but i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.

I'm quite comfortable with my read of the situation that the Govt's radical socialism will have a material impact in the market and the first month's data is initial confirmation of my assessment that the tide has turned. Like all things, time will tell for sure.

Still plenty of unknowns in the housing sector - inflation, interest rates, new builds and who buys them (somebody or nobody - Ormiston Rise?). But the biggest unknown is what the government will or won't do. Uncertainty and lack of trust are not encouraging for investors.

Meanwhile, according to announcements, existing homes purchased by investors from 27 March lose 100% of interest deductibility on 1 October. Huge disincentive, which is the government's goal of course. Because of the way it was announced - instant guillotine - investors will wait. So we might see further price stabilisation in the sector.

[winner69]

.....


Volume of sales in April was 7,218 down from 10,022 in March 2021, some of this is no doubt a seasonal change.

Number of sales booming ...

REINZ - The number of residential properties sold in April across New Zealand was the highest number of properties sold in an April month for 5 years with 7,218

Jeez ...busiest April month for 5 years

[winner69]

And this is pretty good ..maybe extrapolating current median price not a good idea

REINZ HPI shows house values reach new high in April

The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 26.8% year-on-year to 3,775 a new high on the index. This is the highest a REINZ HPI shows house values reach new high in April
The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 26.8% year-on-year to 3,775 a new high on the index. This is the highest annual percentage increase in the HPI that we’ve seen since records began, and is the eleventh consecutive month that we’ve seen a new high, showing the continued strength of the market in April. nnual percentage increase in the HPI that we’ve seen since records began, and is the eleventh consecutive month that we’ve seen a new high, showing the continued strength of the market in April.

[Rawz]

.... i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.

Hey Beagle, are you clients giving you an indication of where the residential property money will go after they sell? Stocks or commercial property?

BTW- good to have you back. Your posts are of much value.