OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[allfromacell]

I'm happy with the property data released today but that's because I've always thrown way more weight behind the HPI than the median. The HPI was very strong and showed further growth around most of the country except for a small drop in Auckland compared to last month. A pretty resilient result considering the tax announcement and just how strongly the market has run in recent months.

Looking forward to the results, I expected if the wider markets bounce back next week we'll see a strong run in the SP in the days leading up to the announcement.

[Beagle]

Market going okay-ish today yet OCA who are about to report are down sharply. Leaky ship, ominous sign of a below market result or market disappointment that 30,000 nurses are striking next month indicating no end to the ever escalating cost of providing late stage care ?

[justakiwi]

The strike involves DHB hospital based nurses who are concerned about “horrific and unsafe staffing conditions” and the recently announced, no pay rises for three years. I suspect providers such as OCA are paying their nurses pretty well, compared to what DHBs are paying. I don’t see the strike having any real impact on the market but if it is, it is probably unwarranted. JMHO.

Market going okay-ish today yet OCA who are about to report are down sharply. Leaky ship, ominous sign of a below market result or market disappointment that 30,000 nurses are striking next month indicating no end to the ever escalating cost of providing late stage care ?

[Beagle]

Here's how its been reported in the media https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nurses...C5CZWPEDVB6YU/
Possibly worth noting that the "initial pay offer" was 1.38% for most nurses and this was "slightly below" the rate of inflation....but not noted in the article (but as we have previously discussed at length Nurses have received a large multi year pay adjustment over the last few years). I get it that they are frustrated with the Govt's attempted wage freeze though...that is ridiculous and hard working nurses and caregivers are absolutely entitled to cost of living increases, no question about that. The problem I see for OCA is that care costs will continue to outstrip ministry of health funding increases.

From a shareholders perspective the returns between the listed operator with the highest level of care, OCA, and the lowest SUM, could not be more stark since OCA listed. SUM up more than 170% since OCA listed which are up a far more modest 70%. OCA has more or less just matched the NZX50 index though and I am sure MAV will comofrt us that better times are ahead so if we hang in there maybe its all comes good in the due course of time ?
SUMvOCA.jpg

[BlackPeter]

Market going okay-ish today yet OCA who are about to report are down sharply. Leaky ship, ominous sign of a below market result or market disappointment that 30,000 nurses are striking next month indicating no end to the ever escalating cost of providing late stage care ?

Hmm - 99 shares went up today and 95 down. Yep, pretty balanced market day. Top winner today was VGL with +5.7% up and top loser was TWR which lost 5.8%.

OCA went down by 4 cents (or 2.9%) - is this really "sharply down" or maybe just part of the normal jitter?

How do you call TWR's drop in comparison?

Just wondering whether confirmation bias might be part of it?

[Ggcc]

Here's how its been reported in the media https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nurses...C5CZWPEDVB6YU/
Possibly worth noting that the "initial pay offer" was 1.38% for most nurses and this was "slightly below" the rate of inflation....but not noted in the article (but as we have previously discussed at length Nurses have received a large multi year pay adjustment over the last few years). I get it that they are frustrated with the Govt's attempted wage freeze though...that is ridiculous and hard working nurses and caregivers are absolutely entitled to cost of living increases, no question about that. The problem I see for OCA is that care costs will continue to outstrip ministry of health funding increases.

From a shareholders perspective the returns between the listed operator with the highest level of care, OCA, and the lowest SUM, could not be more stark since OCA listed. SUM up more than 170% since OCA listed which are up a far more modest 70%. OCA has more or less just matched the NZX50 index though and I am sure MAV will comofrt us that better times are ahead so if we hang in there maybe its all comes good in the due course of time ?
SUMvOCA.jpg

Crazy. Give the minimum wage a 5.8% wage increase, but nurses get 1.38………… Something wrong with that.

[HCR20]

Just wondering whether confirmation bias might be part of it?

My thoughts too.

[Beagle]

Hmm - 99 shares went up today and 95 down. Yep, pretty balanced market day. Top winner today was VGL with +5.7% up and top loser was TWR which lost 5.8%.

OCA went down by 4 cents (or 2.9%) - is this really "sharply down" or maybe just part of the normal jitter?

How do you call TWR's drop in comparison?

Just wondering whether confirmation bias might be part of it?

I don't own or follow TWR. Don't like insurance companies, never have,...almost always some 1 in 100 year event happening a least once a year, often twice.

Crazy. Give the minimum wage a 5.8% wage increase, but nurses get 1.38………… Something wrong with that.

Great, lets not worry about huge wage relativity claims in the past and give everyone a 5.8% pay increase. What could possibly go wrong...

[winner69]

Hmm - 99 shares went up today and 95 down. Yep, pretty balanced market day. Top winner today was VGL with +5.7% up and top loser was TWR which lost 5.8%.

OCA went down by 4 cents (or 2.9%) - is this really "sharply down" or maybe just part of the normal jitter?

How do you call TWR's drop in comparison?

Just wondering whether confirmation bias might be part of it?

TWR dreadful downgrade .....maybe a sign of things to come for OCA

One thing in common that’s a problem ..outrageous building / construction costs

[Bjauck]

... The problem I see for OCA is that care costs will continue to outstrip ministry of health funding increases.
...

If that is the case, won't operators stop providing care beds for the DHBs leaving the government to handle a crisis? Is there an obligation on these companies, of which I am an unaware?