OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Who are you? And what have you done with Beagle?

I've been on a refresher dog training course called creative accounting 101 for old bean counting mutts

[Baa_Baa]

An analyst that I subscribe to initiated coverage of OCA (BUY) medium term target of $1.60

OCA is a New Zealand based retirement village operator. While much smaller than the likes of Summerset and Ryman, it still has 44 villages spread across New Zealand. Oceania is focussed on premium care which is helping it deliver more recurring revenue and the benefits associated with generating higher earnings per bed. Oceania shares have pulled back from a strong rebound since covid-19, but has provided meaningful upside for investors since its IPO in 2017. We maintain a positive view on the retirement village sector with the market paying a premium given strong fundamentals and growth prospects.

We initiate coverage on Oceania with a BUY rating as it provides attractive value within the highly valued retirement village sector, with a decade-long growth tailwind in demand as the population aged above 80+ is set to grow. Valuation metrics look favourable, paying a higher dividend and priced at a lower multiple to peers, with a premium to its asset valuation only 1.13x net tangible asset (NTA) per share (the book valuation of its property). This can be contrasted to major peers Summerset and Ryman trading on 2-2.5x NTA, due to their longer track record, larger size, and better-quality perception. Over time, we think OCA can trade at higher valuations if management can prove themselves to investors and execute on growth plans.

Looking ahead, OCA’s smaller scale and lower debt levels means it has funding capacity to ramp up development activity as needed, or to make more acquisitions. At the same time, Oceania’s strategy to focus on premium care will help deliver a higher level of recurring revenue which implies earnings will be less reliant on expanding development activity.

Seems the rest of the market is starting to realise OCAs potential.

Thanks for posting, can you say who the analyst is?

[justakiwi]

LOL! There’s hope for you yet …. welcome to the dark side

I've been on a refresher dog training course called creative accounting 101 for old bean counting mutts

[Rawz]

Hey OCA is a $1b company again! Cool stuff aye.

Don't think we will see low $1.30's ever again. NZX will always put good companies up for sale every now and then.

Guess we heading back to $1.60.

[winner69]

LOL! There’s hope for you yet …. welcome to the dark side

It’s what happens to accountants at the onset of winter

[Beagle]

It’s what happens to accountants at the onset of winter

Strange things happen to Beagles in winter...they start to think outside the box / kennell ?
https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&ajaxserp=0OCAJUN21.jpg No worries, we have out breakout up through the 100 day moving average, onward and upward to $1.68 the average analyst price target.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/

[YoungBull]

I must admit I was extremely pleased when the price was pulled down to 1.30. I managed to purchase a good amount more down there. Being so close to the NTA is a great floor for me, really bolstered my decision to buy more.

[Joh13]

Thanks for posting, can you say who the analyst is?

No worries, they call themselves ATM Strategy. https://atmstrategy.com.au

Good day for OCAs SP :-)

Must be some potential if Beagle is topping up at $1.40

[Bjauck]

No worries, they call themselves ATM Strategy. https://atmstrategy.com.au

Good day for OCAs SP :-)

Must be some potential if Beagle is topping up at $1.40

At least the SP is now higher than the $1.37 I paid in October last year.

[BlackPeter]

At least the SP is now higher than the $1.37 I paid in October last year.

My best buy for OCA was 55 cents in March 2020. One of these events though, where - with hindsight - I regret that I didn't buy more than I did :