OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[aquaman]

Looks like someone let the cat out of the bag that this one is the cheapest in the sector by far and the whole sector will benefit massively from years of strong tailwinds as risk averse old folks seek the sanctuary of a safe place to ride out the years of covid risks ahead of us.

Just as well I have rerated this to BBB (Beagle been busy buying), opps that's 4 B's

4 Bs

Last time I heard that was when i was a kid and a strap leather hung on the kitchen wall with four big Bs stamped into it, this was known as the "Boisterous Boys Bum Buster" It worked and my brother and i deserved it!

I hope your 4Bs amend this behavior of not rating OCA high enough

[winner69]

Annual increases in property's prices impressive but growth is slowing ….from a gallop to a canter

Latest month 0.9% x 12 = 10.8% annualized. Up 2.4% past 3 months x 4 = 9.6% annualized.

[winner69]

Could be heading to highest close for 5 months ……that’s good recovering that well

Maybe even a new all time high this week

As market wakes up best not to miss out …..get in today

[Beagle]

Arvida currently trading at 1.45 times NTA...seems perfectly reasonable to me and I hold some. Same 1.45 times NTA of $1.20 for OCA would give a share price of $1.74.

[mike2020]

Arvida currently trading at 1.45 times NTA...seems perfectly reasonable to me and I hold some. Same 1.45 times NTA of $1.20 for OCA would give a share price of $1.74.

I did that comparison with SUM and came up with $3.10 (someone said NTA is closer to $1.36 now)

[winner69]

IPO just over 4 years ago at 79 cents …..so about 18% pa return (plus divies)

Consensus view it’s undervalued but past point of inflection and with eps accretive acquisitions and a rerate imminent we should expect at least 30% pa over next 2 years …that’s a share price over 260 as a minimum in 2 years

But if Brett tells a good enough story and delivers on it and the market actually sees OCA is as good as if not better than SUM then 4 bucks it will be.

[Beagle]

All the analysts covering it rate it a BUY. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/

[Ferg]

winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers

[Biscuit]

winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers

Stick around long enough and you will see there is little correlation. You're better to stick with your shorter-than-average MA plan Ferg.

[Ferg]

Stick around long enough and you will see there is little correlation. You're better to stick with your shorter-than-average MA plan Ferg.

Thanks Biscuit. I was starting to get that sense but I generally don't use TA other than very simplistically to time my buying during what I think are temporary dips.

I have tracked my purchases based on following ST buy recommendations (i.e. "Follow", n = 5), doing the opposite of the ST sell recommendations i.e. buying against the trend ("Contrarian", n = 5) and also those that are unloved by ST and not regularly commented upon where I did my own research ("Independent", n = 10) where n is the number of stock purchases. Neutral is no gain or loss as measured by -2% < x < 2%. Anything over 2% is a win, and anything under -2% is classified as a loss.

The Win/Loss/Neutral results to date are:
Follow = 60%/20%/20% (includes OCA win)
Contrarian = 60%/40%/0%
Independent =80%/10%/10%

The losses are unrealised. I see nothing to convince me these shares are over-valued so I'm willing to see how they play out and they may yet turn to gains.

What I can conclude is that it is a bit of a crap shoot following ST, and I get the best results doing my own research. Although I am happy to admit I have a very small sample of 20. I'm curious to hear others opinions on this, hence the question.

Cheers