OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[mike2020]

Thanks Biscuit. I was starting to get that sense but I generally don't use TA other than very simplistically to time my buying during what I think are temporary dips.

I have tracked my purchases based on following ST buy recommendations (i.e. "Follow", n = 5), doing the opposite of the ST sell recommendations i.e. buying against the trend ("Contrarian", n = 5) and also those that are unloved by ST and not regularly commented upon where I did my own research ("Independent", n = 10) where n is the number of stock purchases. Neutral is no gain or loss as measured by -2% < x < 2%. Anything over 2% is a win, and anything under -2% is classified as a loss.

The Win/Loss/Neutral results to date are:
Follow = 60%/20%/20% (includes OCA win)
Contrarian = 60%/40%/0%
Independent =80%/10%/10%

The losses are unrealised. I see nothing to convince me these shares are over-valued so I'm willing to see how they play out and they may yet turn to gains.

What I can conclude is that it is a bit of a crap shoot following ST, and I get the best results doing my own research. Although I am happy to admit I have a very small sample of 20. I'm curious to hear others opinions on this, hence the question.

Cheers

I don't see ST as a place to get buy/sell orders, it's just a place to get opinions, information and ideas I may not have come across on my own. The final decision is still independent. Not everyone agrees and that is healthy.

[BlackPeter]

winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers

Share price = underlying value + hype (t).

I find that share trader comments are a good gauge for the hype about a stock at a certain point in time (t).

Hard to say, whether share trader comments make (or lead) the hype or just reflect it ... I suppose it will be a bit of both.

[winner69]

Share price = underlying value + hype (t). (BP)

If underlying value is consensus analysts that number than it is 1.68

So with share price is 154 the hype around OCA is negative

Better fix that quick …..a call to action

We need 168 (underlying) plus hype of 30 cents to get close to 2 bucks

So c’mon all ….a bit of hype …and OCA needs to do its bit as well

[850man]

I think the next step is for OCA to make, take their favourable pricing and turn it into sales. SUM did it in the current market inspite of any prevalent doom and gloom housing market messages, OCA your turn now. To quote one of my favorite movie lines "the foreplay is over, it's time to f***"

[BlackPeter]

Share price = underlying value + hype (t). (BP)

If underlying value is consensus analysts that number than it is 1.68

...

I think it is a bit more complicated to get to the fundamentals ... and I must admit that I didn't yet manage to identify what analyst consensus predictions are supposed to represent, other than a medium value of some random numbers :

Agree however - increasing (positive) hype always helps to push the SP up. Only thing to consider is that hype is always a function of time, i.e. not that useful for long term investors (unless it is currently negative and you want to buy).

Oops - didn't you just show us that hype for OCA is currently negative? So - what am I talking ... should be buying more instead ;

Discl: hold already a (for my portfolio) materially sized parcel;

[winner69]

I think it is a bit more complicated to get to the fundamentals ... and I must admit that I didn't yet manage to identify what analyst consensus predictions are supposed to represent, other than a medium value of some random numbers :

Agree however - increasing (positive) hype always helps to push the SP up. Only thing to consider is that hype is always a function of time, i.e. not that useful for long term investors (unless it is currently negative and you want to buy).

Oops - didn't you just show us that hype for OCA is currently negative? So - what am I talking ... should be buying more instead ;

Discl: hold already a (for my portfolio) materially sized parcel;

Underlying / fundamental / intrinsic values are very subjective aren’t they BP ….pity it’s not an ‘exact’ science

So in Treasury lingo your formula is thus - Price = best guess as to value +/- hype (t)

[BlackPeter]

Underlying / fundamental / intrinsic values are very subjective aren’t they BP ….pity it’s not an ‘exact’ science

...

Not sure they are subjective, there is just a high level of uncertainty around any attempt to value a security without knowing the future.

Not sure either whether it is a pity its not an exact science. If it would be an exact science, then there would be no point in having markets and there would be nothing for us to banter about ...

Life would be so boring if we would know the future (which would be a requirement for valuations being certain).

Long live the uncertainty !

[Beagle]

winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers

In past years the ST "top 5", (the 5 most favored shares by the collective intelligence on here) has well and truly outperformed the NZX50 and done very well indeed compared to the average professional analyst's picks in the annual share picking competitions. This year is the exception, unfortunatly.

You can see how "well" the collective wisdom is doing here at post #107 and 108 and the ones who are spanking the market at post #111
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...ing-Comp/page6

Based on many years of evidence my conclusion is that the collective wisdom on here is far more often worth listening too than not but definitely DYOR.

[Curly]

Time to make the call 'we will never see $1.50 again'

Maybe tomorrow do you think?

[850man]

Time to make the call 'we will never see $1.50 again'

Well that statement was the kiss of death wasn't it