OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NR7ZVPSDSZXAM/ Paywalled
Retirement village apartment licences set $3m-$4m price records.

I really hope Brent is taking notes.

[dobby41]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NR7ZVPSDSZXAM/ Paywalled
Retirement village apartment licences set $3m-$4m price records.

I really hope Brent is taking notes.

With a 30% deferred maintenance fee.
A bit out of my range.

[winner69]

Property market still robust

Prices still going up

Good for this sector …more so for the likes of SUM and RYM than OCA

July report

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...uly%202021.pdf

[Beagle]

Property market still robust

Prices still going up

Good for this sector …more so for the likes of SUM and RYM than OCA

July report

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...uly%202021.pdf

Thanks. Looks very strong to me. Consumer confidence waning in Australia though https://thebull.com.au/lockdowns-hit...12+August+2021 so maybe SUM and RYM will feel it a bit with their Australian operations ?
Hold OCA and a modest stake in ARV. (Wouldn't mind some SUM back in my portfolio at some stage soon).

[dabsman]

You waiting for SUM to report Beagle?

[Beagle]

You waiting for SUM to report Beagle?

Not sure what I am waiting for to be completely honest about it. My own SUM journey is part of the answer. Selling pre- covid very early in 2020 at $9 wasn't a bad move at the time. She's up 46% since then and I'm "sort of" okay with that on some grounds but certainly earnings are not up 46%. I should have bought back in when it dipped under NTA in the middle of the Covid crisis last year but ...alas....its easy with hindsight !!

I suppose I shouldn't be too hard on myself, I did lay into OCA good and proper in the low 70 cent range last year and its more than doubled since then.

SUM = Good company, good prospects, well managed, forward PE in the early 20's which is okay, great land bank...new CEO is a bright guy....

I just feel OCA has better capital appreciation prospects but maybe I am wrong and SUM's very lite level care model is better. Hard to say....time will tell I guess.

P.S. A smart man hedges his bets. Finally got a few SUM back in the fold this afternoon. (Thanks for your question).

[winner69]

Wonder if our Brent is an empathetic leader …..because leading with empathy boosts the bottom line.

I understand Earl lead with empathy

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/t...he-bottom-line
Might be paywalled

[winner69]

Beagle put all this another thread. Deserves to be here.

Good work Winner, many thanks. If we adjust returns for the premiums to NTA though....

ARV 9% / 1.2 = 7.5% per annum + 4% estimated dividend yield = adjusted gains as a percentage of the share price paid plus dividend yield = 11.5% per annum value accretion on capital invested
RYM 16% / 2.5 = 6.4% per annum + 2% estimated dividend yield = adjusted gains as a percentage of the share price paid plus dividend yield = 8.4% per annum value accretion on capital invested
SUM 26% / 2.2 = 11.8% per annum + 2% estimated dividend yield = adjusted gains as a percentage of the share price paid plus dividend yield = 13.8% per annum value accretion on capital invested
OCA 13% / 1.2 = 10.83% per annum + 4% estimated dividend yield = adjusted gains as a percentage of the share price paid plus dividend yield = 14.83% per annum value accretion on capital invested

If one is measuring total comprehensive income and using total NTA gains, realized (AKA underlying profit) and unrealized plus dividends paid as their yardstick of how much value accretion a company provides then the premium one pays relative to NTA is a vital factor in determining total value accretion as a percentage of the share price paid for each company

I would argue SUM's premium is therefore worth it, whereas RYM's premium to NTA means people are paying over the odds for this sector for the value accretion they receive.

I think OCA have done extremely well considering for most of that time they have been behind the curve with overhauling their business model.

Feels good to have some SUM back in my portfolio. Might add sum more.

Yes it certainly does shine the spotlight on them, especially considering they were carrying a lot of extra cost while they demolished old facilities and rebuilt. In my opinion this highlights the lack of understanding of their financial statements. Past the point of inflection is one thing but the big gains from their redevelopment program start 2-3 years down the track and continue to build from there. I suspect Maverick is onto something with his huge stake and will do incredibly well in the long term.

SUM have done very well too, especially for those that bought at cheaper prices. Vast land bank and well proven business model.

[850man]

Stockton continues to sell http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...420/352367.pdf

[Joh13]

It’s going to be a while yet before he is able to fully sell down, if that’s his plan. That coupled with a few regional lockdowns may provide an opportunity to buy closer to NAV of $1.28