OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Hi beagle, I am unconvinced by your thesis that you can simply recoup build costs in the sale price. This may be true in part but I think units are priced to sell and the sale price is set largely due to external factors, e.g local housing sale price, local demand etc.

Units are generally less than half the size of a conventional house in the same neighborhood and priced accordingly. I'm super confident of my thesis.

[James108]

Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…

Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.

[allfromacell]

Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…

Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.

What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?

If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

[Beagle]

What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?

If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

You're on to it

[tommy_d]

Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.

[allfromacell]

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.

35% here although a lot is just letting profits run, I'm feeling cool and calm.

[Panda-NZ-]

Brexit britain are hiking all sorts of taxes to pay for "social care".

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/bori...re-crises.html

Mainly on the workers of course..

Bezos seems interested in the more obvious direction, fixing the underlying aging issue with medicine.

[Ggcc]

the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.

I hear you. It remains a great business longterm and just remember that. I have often thought about lowering my hold and looking to invest in something else. But what?

[Waltzing]

You ave to like the new adverts.

[winner69]

Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)