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09-09-2021, 04:39 PM
#9911
Originally Posted by James108
Hi beagle, I am unconvinced by your thesis that you can simply recoup build costs in the sale price. This may be true in part but I think units are priced to sell and the sale price is set largely due to external factors, e.g local housing sale price, local demand etc.
Units are generally less than half the size of a conventional house in the same neighborhood and priced accordingly. I'm super confident of my thesis.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-09-2021, 05:02 PM
#9912
Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…
Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.
Last edited by James108; 09-09-2021 at 05:10 PM.
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09-09-2021, 05:37 PM
#9913
Originally Posted by James108
Yes I am sure you are. If they are priced at half the local conventional house what effect does construction costs have? Hmmm…
Maybe if you CAN just recoup your costs as part of the unit sale price Oceania could 'pretend' internally that they had incurred extra construction costs and then increase the sale price accordingly! May need to send Brent an email.
What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?
If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.
Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...
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09-09-2021, 06:01 PM
#9914
Originally Posted by allfromacell
What about all the embedded value of all the existing units though?
If costs increase, naturally prices increase and therefore units built in the last decade are all worth more and resold again and again for more and more profit.
Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...
You're on to it
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-09-2021, 06:13 PM
#9915
Member
Originally Posted by allfromacell
Sometimes I think this investment is just too easy...
the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.
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09-09-2021, 06:43 PM
#9916
Originally Posted by tommy_d
the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.
35% here although a lot is just letting profits run, I'm feeling cool and calm.
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09-09-2021, 09:45 PM
#9917
Brexit britain are hiking all sorts of taxes to pay for "social care".
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/bori...re-crises.html
Mainly on the workers of course..
Bezos seems interested in the more obvious direction, fixing the underlying aging issue with medicine.
Last edited by Panda-NZ-; 10-09-2021 at 11:49 AM.
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09-09-2021, 10:20 PM
#9918
Originally Posted by tommy_d
the difficult bit is when OCA is just under 25% of my portfolio, and i feel as though it remains undervalued, but am uncomfortable having so many eggs in one basket.
I hear you. It remains a great business longterm and just remember that. I have often thought about lowering my hold and looking to invest in something else. But what?
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10-09-2021, 06:20 PM
#9919
You ave to like the new adverts.
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13-09-2021, 09:39 AM
#9920
Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year
Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day
Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid
At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully
Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares
We should be forward looking
An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
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