OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)

Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?

Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.

While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.

[winner69]

Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?

Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.

While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.

I'm glad you are so optimistic BP so I shouldn't worry

Unless investors don't panic sell en masse when they read about covid deaths in aged care places

[justakiwi]

The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.

I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.

I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)

Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year

Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day

Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid

At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully

Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares

We should be forward looking

An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)

[Beagle]

The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.

I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.

I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)

Thank you for your valuable feedback from the front line.

[thegreatestben]

Earl's been selling - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...021/354570.pdf

[850man]

Earl's been selling - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...021/354570.pdf

Not surprising as he went to the competition 6 months ago

[thegreatestben]

Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?

[Poet]

Maybe needs 6 months distance so no longer considered an insider

[dompf]

Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?

maybe he bought a Bach

[Greekwatchdog]

Or a MET Retirement home.